中国农村后义务教育省际不均衡的形成机制与协调策略研究

The inter-provincial inequity of Post-Compulsory-Education in Rural China (PCERC, which refers to the educations that implemented after nine years' compulsory education) is a longstanding problem, which is the intersection of solutions to some major global problems, such as “three-agricultural issues”, “labor supply in economic transition” and “regional coordinated development”, and needs to be solved urgently. Focusing this problem, we try to: (1) uncover the multidimensional representations of the inter-provincial inequity of PCERC based on the theory of New Economic Geography, (2) clarify the local action mechanism, cross action mechanism and quantitative contributions of the main factors based on Spatial Econometric Models and the Shapley Value Decomposition method, (3) propose quantitative method for multi-strategies ranking and single strategy optimizing based on Computer Simulation, (4) put forward strategies in the guidance of Coordinating-in-Developing. Contributions: (1) The mechanism of the inter-provincial inequity of PCERC is clarified based on the new interpreting paradigm "local factors + neighbor factors + neighbor phenomenon→local phenomenon". (2) Quantitative research, instead of qualitative research, is introduced into strategy research of the inter-provincial inequity of PCERC by simulation. Main feature: Focusing PCERC, which meets the upgrading of labor quality demand and the inter-provincial difference in education supply and talent demand. The research conclusions could deepen the theoretical understanding to the inter-provincial inequity of PCERC, and also provide reference for relevant government decision-making.

农村后义务教育（即开展于九年义务教育之后的、承续性的教育）省际不均衡问题由来已久，是解决“三农”、“经济转型劳动力供给”和“区域协调发展”等全局重大问题的交汇处，亟待解决。本研究聚焦这一问题：①基于新经济地理学理论揭示问题的多维表征；②基于空间计量模型和Shapley值分解法分析主要影响因素的本地作用机理、跨区域作用机理和定量化贡献度；③基于计算机仿真法，建立定量化的对策优选与优化方法；④提出以“发展中协调”为导向的问题解决策略。创新之处：①基于“本地影响因素+邻地影响因素+邻地现象→本地现象”的新解释范式，厘清农村后义务教育省际不均衡问题的形成机制；②利用仿真技术，将中国农村后义务教育省际不均衡问题的协调策略研究由“定性研究”推进至“定量研究”。主要特色：聚焦后义务教育，这契合于劳动力素质要求的升级与省际教育供给和人才需求的差异。研究结论既有助于深化相关理论认识；亦可为政府决策提供参考。

中国农村“后义务教育（即开展于九年义务教育之后的、承续性的教育）”省际不均衡问题由来已久，这一问题是解决“三农”、“经济转型劳动力供给”和“区域协调发展”等全局重大问题的交汇处，亟待解决。本项目针对这一问题，一是评价了区域农村后义务教育发展现状，在此基础上通过多种方式揭示了中国农村后义务教育省际不均衡的表征及其演变。研究显示，我国农村后义务教育存在显著的空间不均衡，但差异呈缩小趋势，中国农村后义务教育空间关联网络逐渐紧凑，省际互动和关联度显著增强。二是廓清了中国农村后义务教育发展不均衡的关键影响因素及其作用机理。研究揭示了地区固有因素、农民收入、农村固定资产投资、城市化水平、产业结构、区域创新能力、财政支农、农地流转、农业生产效率、农村教育经费投入等因素对农村后义务教育不均衡的显著影响，发现部分影响因素存在的非线性作用、空间溢出作用和空间交互作用。三是从脱贫攻坚、产业转移、教育经费倾斜、新农村建设、城乡融合、新型城镇化、科技创新等方面，提出推动滞后区域农村后义务教育发展和缩小农村后义务教育省际不均衡的路径与策略。在此基础上，鉴于农村后义务教育的基础性和外溢作用，项目还从区域科技创新、区域生态效率、城市化发展等方面进一步丰富了农村后义务教育的后效影响研究。项目研究的科学意义主要在于揭示了中国农村后义务教育省际不均衡的多维表征，深化了对于影响因素及其作用方式的认识。项目研究成果的应用前景一是可为缩小农村后义务教育省际差距，优化我国农村后义务教育空间格局提供决策依据；二是为提升农村劳动力素质和推动区域协调发展提供借鉴。