基于动态模拟的北京旧城非历史街区空间演变机制与整治设计策略研究

The rapid development of areas outside the Beijing historic sites has exerted a great influence on the features of Beijing old city and also given birth to a large area of 'middle zones', which locates between the historic sites within the old city and new development outside. The 'middle zones' have a great impact on the protection of the old city's features, but are always ignored. Hence, there is an urgent need for research on the current situation, transformation mechanism and regeneration strategy of those non-historic sites of Beijing old city. The research focuses on the analysis of spatial features of non-historic sites in Beijing old city, as well as the modelling methods of their transformation mechanism. Based on dynamic modelling methods, the research aims to provide a scientific instrument for regeneration of such areas, thereby forming a basis for computer-aided urban regeneration methods.The research will be conducted in the following steps. First, a spatial survey of non-historic sites in Beijing old city will be conducted to gather basic spatial information and build the database. Second, the spatial transformation of the studied area will be visualized, as the working basis for the monitor and management of its spatial transformation. Third, the transformation mechanism of the whole area and typical units will be analyzed with statistical regression and dynamic modelling, from which the influencing factors and influencing mechanisms can be revealed. Finally, the current situation of the studied area will be evaluated with the model and suggestions and guidelines for its regeneration will be drawn. The research approach and research findings can help guide the regeneration and holistic preservation of Beijing old city in a scientific and efficient manner, which can support the preservation and regeneration research of old city.

近年来北京历史街区外建设规模不断加大，在历史街区和旧城外新建区间存在大片新旧混杂的"中间地带"，这类城市空间对旧城传统风貌保护有重要影响但又往往不被关注，针对这些非历史街区空间现状、演变机制与整治设计策略展开研究迫在眉睫。 研究借鉴动态模拟方法，提出"北京旧城非历史街区空间特征与演变机制模型建构"命题，尝试为旧城非历史街区空间整治提供理性的科学工具。研究内容包括：北京旧城非历史街区空间调查，收集整理大量基础资料并搭建数据库；实现北京旧城非历史街区空间演变的动态可视化，为空间监控以及管理提供基础；基于统计回归与动态模拟方法解析北京旧城非历史街区空间演变机制，分析相关影响因子与影响机制；根据分析结果对现状进行评价分析，并提出整治的设计导则和政策建议。 本课题拟提出的研究视角、方法及预期研究成果，可以科学、规范、高效地指导未来空间整治、促进北京旧城整体保护，为旧城保护更新提供理论与技术支撑。

近年来北京历史街区外建设规模不断加大，在历史街区和旧城外新建区间存在大片新旧混杂的“中间地带”，这类城市空间对旧城传统风貌保护有重要影响但又往往不被关注，针对这些非历史街区空间现状、演变机制与整治设计策略展开研究迫在眉睫。研究借鉴动态模拟方法，提出“北京旧城非历史街区空间特征与演变机制模型建构”命题，尝试为旧城非历史街区空间整治提供理性的科学工具。.项目主要研究内容包括四个方面。一是北京旧城非历史街区空间调查与数据库搭建，探索了大量、多种北京旧城空间相关数据来源与采集方式，力图在当前技术与数据可获得性条件下实现对北京旧城城市空间客体以及市民主体相关认知、行为的全面描述。二是综合传统方法与深度学习方法的北京旧城非历史街区空间演变可视化，实现了北京旧城非历史街区建筑空间演变的动态可视化呈现，特别是结合近年来计算机视觉技术的发展，开展了将深度学习算法应用于建筑风貌评估的探索性尝试。三是在上述空间数据基础上，综合元胞自动机与多主体模拟方法，构建了北京旧城非历史街区空间演变模型。四是基于上述研究结果开展北京旧城非历史街区城市设计方案与整治策略制定。.研究产生的重要成果包括：（1）完成北京旧城建筑环境认知评价调查，共发放并回收调查问卷800份；（2）完成多年份北京旧城非历史街区空间基础数据收集;（3）创新采用计算机视觉深度学习方法，基于街景图片对北京城市旧城风貌进行评估与可视化分析；（4）对相关建筑与城市设计理论、演变与方法进行梳理并发表多篇学术论文；（5）综合采用元胞自动机与多主体模拟方法对旧城非历史街区空间演变与人群行为进行模拟，模型训练均达到较高准确度；（6）基于研究结果，从旧城整体保护角度对当前空间状况进行评价，为北京旧城非历史街区空间提出相应的整治更新设计策略。