长壁老采空区残余移动与变形多尺度时变规律及动态预测方法研究

In view of the problems of multi-scale and time-space evolution rule and dynamic prediction method of residual movement and deformation in the longwall goaf, the research will be systemly carried out as follows: (1)Based on PFC simulation and rheological experiment, combined with similar gradation theory, the rheological law of broken rock in the old goaf area is studied, at the same time , mass creep model of broken rock is set up.By means of physical and numerical simulation, left empty and void space distribution law in the old goaf area is revealled under the conditions of different lithology, mining depth and mining height, combined with the compression mechanical time-varying feature of broken rock, "activation" volume space-time distribution model in the old goaf area is established. (2) Fused probability integral method and D-InSAR technology, mining movement and deformation monitoring method is put forward. Based on temporal D-InSAR, revealled the space-time evolution law of residual movement deformation with multi-scale, long cycle, and established experience model between the residual movement deformation characteristics and time ,geological and mining conditions. (3) According to the modified probability integral method model of the residual movement deformation distribution characteristics, combining with the "activation" volume distribution model of time and space, build the residual movement deformation dynamic prediction model and parameters of the system in the old goaf area. Research findings has important guiding significance to old goaf foundation stability evaluation, old goaf management and mining deformation resistance design.

针对长壁老采空区残余移动与变形多尺度时空演变规律及动态预测方法存在的不足，本课题拟系统的开展以下研究：(1) 运用PFC模拟和流变实验结合相似级配理论，研究采空区破碎岩体流变规律，建立其蠕变模型；利用物理和数值模拟，揭示不同岩性、釆深和釆高老采空区残留空洞、空隙空间分布规律，结合破碎岩体压缩力学时变特征，建立老采空区“活化”体积时空分布模型。(2)融合概率积分法和D-InSAR技术，提出采动移动与变形D-InSAR监测方法；基于时序D-InSAR技术，揭示残余移动与变形长周期多尺度时空演化规律，并建立残余移动与变形特征与时间、地质采矿条件的经验模型。(3)根据残余移动与变形分布特征修正概率积分法预计模型，结合老采空区“活化”体积时空分布模型，构建长壁老采空区地表残余移动与变形动态预计模型及参数体系。研究成果对采动地基稳定性评价、采空区治理和建筑物抗采动变形设计具有重要指导意义。

项目综合采用模拟试验、实测研究、理论建模等研究方法，针对长壁缓倾斜采空区研究对象，开展了“长壁老采空区残余活化体积时空分布规律”、“长壁老采空区残余移动与变形多尺度时空演化规律”、“长壁老采空区残余移动与变形动态预测模型及参数体系”三方面内容研究，并取得了以下原创性研究成果：（1）基于InSAR的采动地表三维变形监测方法。提出了针对水平、倾斜煤层的基于单视线向D-InSAR的开采沉陷三维直接监测方法和间接（预计）监测方法。（2）采空区地表残余变形预计方法。在非线性预测方面，构建了基于多源异构预测方法融合的稳健预计模型、顾及数据新鲜度函数Knothe的最优组合预测模型，在基于影响函数预测方面，建立了顾及“活化源”的概率积分法预计模型，并重点研究了预计模型动态参数估计方法、任意形状“等价工作面”剖分策略。（3）残余移动变形角量参数估计及智能求参方法。提出了基于稳健估计的地表移动盆地综合角量参数分离方法，构建了基于QGA、QSA、QPSO多源智能求参方法。（4）水平、缓倾斜采空区地表稳定性评价方法。分析研究了长壁、缓倾斜采空区“活化”机理，初步构建了壁式废弃采空区地表建设再利用风险评价模型。研究成果为长壁缓倾斜采空区地基设计提供重要科学依据和技术支撑。