竞合关系下考虑产出不确定风险的双渠道供应链采购及运营决策研究

In the trend of globalization, competition and cooperation between large manufacturing enterprises, especially multinational enterprises have become normal. They often coexist and constitute a coopetitive supply chain. One of the most common cases is that competitive suppliers provide key components for brand manufacturers on the one hand, and on the other hand they produce their own substitutable products and compete with brand manufacturers in downstream market. The existence of such a coopetition relationship encourages brand manufacturers to search for other non-competitive suppliers, but the corresponding cost is that such spare parts suppliers may have uncertain yields. This project focuses on the research of a supply chain which is constituted of competitive suppliers, brand manufacturers and non-competitive suppliers with yield uncertainty, analyze the game among them and their equilibrium procurement and operation decisions (e.g., pricing and quantity), and then investigate their strategic interaction and the important issues such as supply chain structure, supply chain coordination and information transfer in depth. The research will integrate the theories of game theory, channel management and information economics, help to guide the management practice of domestic brand manufacturers and spare parts manufacturers, and implement the national strategy of transformation and upgrading of the Chinese manufacturing industry.

在全球化的趋势中，大型生产制造企业、尤其是跨国企业之间的竞争与合作已经成为常态，且两者往往并存而构成竞合关系下的供应链。其中一种常见的情形是：竞争性供应商一方面为品牌制造商提供关键零部件，另一方面又同时自行生产替代性产品与品牌制造商在下游竞争。这种竞合关系的存在促使品牌制造商寻找其他的非竞争性供应商，但相应的代价则是备用的零部件供应商的产出可能具有不确定性。本项目着眼于研究竞争性供应商、品牌制造商及产出不确定的非竞争性供应商所构成的供应链，分析三者在采购及运营上的博弈及其均衡条件下的决策（定价、产量等），进而分析他们之间的战略互动，深入探讨其中的供应链结构、供应链协调、信息传递等重要问题。研究当中将综合使用博弈论、渠道管理、信息经济学等理论方法，所获结论有助于指导国内的品牌制造商和零部件生产商的管理实践，并落实中国制造业转型升级的国家战略。

本项目考察了品牌制造商与竞争性供应商、产能不确定的非竞争性供应商组成的竞合供应链，研究了品牌制造商的采购策略及竞争性供应商可能的反制措施。此前文献中对竞合供应链的研究尚不太充分，往往停留在静态的均衡解分析，缺少对三方博弈的动态分析（维持合作的条件）。我们研究了品牌制造商的各种可能的采购策略，分析并对比了各种情况下的均衡解，进而考察了两种供应商的后继反应及最终形成的战略均衡。研究得出：（1）各种情况下的均衡解与非竞争性供应商的技术水平（表示为产能不确定性的期望与方差之比）有关，但非竞争性供应商不一定有意愿提升其技术水平；（2）双源供应对品牌制造商总是有利，但竞争性供应商可能以中断供应作为威胁，不过此威胁并不可信，最终双方仍会合作；（3）供应商的产能约束对战略均衡有很大影响，可能会对制造商和供应商带来双赢或双输的结果。研究成果发表后得到了广泛的认可和大量的引用，有力地推动了竞合供应链的相关研究；同时也有助于指导国内的品牌制造商和零部件供应商的管理实践，帮助它们提高市场地位，服务于国家制造业转型升级的战略。