京津冀大气污染防治政策综合评价及未来减排策略研究

China, especially the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, has become one of the most air polluted regions around the world, paying a high resource and environmental price for its extensive economic development mode. The government has taken relevant anti- policies to tackle the severe haze problem in this area. However, it remains to be scientifically discussed whether these policies and measures are of enough effectiveness and equality. Moreover, how to improve them and is there any better emission mitigation strategy needs to be carefully answered, considering that the effects of anti air pollution policies are actually multifold, including influences on economy, environment and public health. Besides, the regional differences and interactions may also affect outcomes of these polices. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment considering all above mentioned aspects is crucial for the decision of policy making. Under a framework of multi-regional interactions, a comprehensive evaluation model of air pollution for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will be built, based on sub-models of multi-regional CGE model, air quality model and health model. With the model developed, a quantitative analysis will be performed to evaluate the effects of current measures about Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area on economy, environment and public health. After that, the cost-benefit as well as equality among regions within the area resulting from existing polices can be comprehensively assessed. Furthermore, several scenarios can be designed and simulations will be carried out to predict outcomes of different specific anti air-pollution strategies and their combinations for years beyond 2020. Finally, this project suggests a more favorable strategy, which balances efficiency and equality, for air pollution reduction in the future, and aims to provide a scientific reference for the making and improvement of relevant policies in China.

以资源环境为代价的粗放型经济增长模式已使得中国特别是京津冀地区成为全球大气污染最严重的区域之一。尽管政府出台了相关防治措施来解决雾霾问题，但这些政策是否有效且公平，以及今后应如何改进以选择较优的减排策略，都是需要研究的科学问题。大气污染治理的政策效果包括经济、环境和健康等多方面，而区域差异和区域相互作用也会对政策效果产生影响，因此，考虑这些因素进行综合评价对决策制定至关重要。本项目拟在多区域相互作用框架下，基于多区域CGE模型、空气质量模型和健康影响模型构建京津冀大气污染综合评价模型；定量研究现有京津冀地区大气污染防治行动计划在经济、环境和健康方面的实施效果，对政策的成本效益和区域公平性进行综合评价；进而设计2020年后的大气污染治理政策方案情景，综合评价不同政策及其政策组合的实施效果，兼顾效率与公平，提出未来大气污染减排的较优策略，从而为我国相关政策制定与改进提供科学参考。

政府已经出台了许多措施来解决京津冀地区的雾霾问题，综合评估这些政策对空气质量改善具有重要的科学意义。本项目基于多区域CGE模型、空气质量模型和健康影响模型构建京津冀大气污染综合评价模型；定量研究大气污染防治行动计划在经济、环境和健康方面的实施效果，对政策的成本效益进行综合评价；进而提出未来大气污染减排的策略。研究结果表明：到2020年，大气污染防治政策在强化情景下使整个BTH的年平均的经济增长损失为2.3%；SO2、NOX和一次PM2.5排放量分别减少60%以上，VOCS排放量分别下降30%以上；总计健康收益约占GDP的1.55%，最终由大气污染防治带来的净成本仍较高。未来应因地制宜制定方案，依靠市场机制手段，采取多种污染物协同控制以及与应对气候变化协同行动来控制改善空气质量。该研究的成果可为我国大气污染防治的政策制定和改善提供科学参考。