"规模导向"还是"创新导向"？我国工业行业大气污染物减排策略研究

Study on the mitigation strategies of air pollutants emission in China’s industry sectors is of great significance. It is helpful for China to improve the air quality and achieve industrial upgrading efficiently, economically and environment friendly. Based on the fact that the mitigation strategies can be divided into scale-oriented strategy, innovation-oriented strategy and combination-oriented strategy, we focus on the selection of above strategies at industrial sector level from the dual perspective of emission performance and abatement cost. The proposal aims to integrate efficiency analysis, statistical analysis and decision analysis to conduct the following research. First, we take production theory as a foundation and explore the impact mechanism of multiple mitigation strategies on the production process, and then develops a new framework of environmental production technology with multiple mitigation strategies. Based on this, by considering the heterogeneity of different sectors, we measure the static and dynamic industrial air pollutants emission performance and synergistic abatement cost, then discuss the characteristics and differences of them under multiple mitigation strategies. Furthermore, by using the performance and cost values obtained from the above empirical studies, we construct a comprehensive evaluation index to identify the category of strategies for economically improve emission performance in different sectors. According to the research results, some policy recommendations are proposed to achieve a win-win situation between economic growth and emissions reduction.. To study above issues can improve the methods for estimating emission performance and abatement cost, and therefore make a contribution to the theory of efficiency and productivity analysis. Besides, it can also provide evaluable information for the selection of multiple mitigation strategies, and further promote industrial transformation and upgrading in China.

工业行业大气污染物减排策略研究对于改善我国大气环境质量，推动工业部门高效、经济、环保地实现转型升级具有重要意义。本项目从工业行业层面出发，兼顾环境效益和经济效益，综合运用效率分析、统计分析、决策分析等技术方法，围绕“规模导向”、“创新导向”和“联合导向”三种减排策略的选择问题展开研究。首先基于生产理论，探究减排策略对生产过程的影响机理，构建纳入多重减排策略的环境生产技术新框架；以此为基础，考虑行业异质性特征，在不同减排策略下，探讨我国工业行业大气污染物排放静态绩效、动态绩效以及协同减排成本的特点和差异；进而在绩效提升和成本优化的要求下，构造综合评价指标，识别我国工业及其分行业的最优减排策略，凝练促进我国实现稳增长、减排放双重目标的政策建议。.上述研究可完善绩效和成本测度方法、丰富效率与生产率分析理论体系，同时也可为减排策略的选择提供科学、定量依据，进而促进我国工业绿色转型升级。

工业行业大气污染物减排策略研究对于改善我国大气环境质量，推动工业部门高效、经济、环保地实现转型升级具有重要意义。本项目从工业行业层面出发，基于生产理论，探究了减排策略对生产过程的影响机理，构建了纳入多重减排策略的环境生产技术新框架，丰富了效率与生产率分析理论体系；以此为基础，考虑行业异质性特征，在不同减排策略下，探讨我国工业行业大气污染物排放绩效和减排成本的特点和差异，识别我国工业及其分行业的最优减排策略，完善了绩效和成本测度方法，为减排策略的选择提供了科学依据，有助于促进我国工业绿色转型升级。. 主要研究内容及结论：. （1）工业分行业大气污染物排放特征分析。在核算工业分行业大气污染物排放量的基础上，运用统计方法，分析了我国工业大气污染物排放的历史、现状和发展趋势，归纳了其排放特征和规律。研究发现大气污染物排放存在明显行业异质性。. （2）减排策略的定量描述及生产技术新框架构建。提出了“规模导向型”、“创新导向性”等不同减排策略，并基于生产理论，以投入要素约束条件的形式对其进行了定量刻画，进一步构建了考虑多种减排策略的生产技术新框架。. （3）多种减排策略下的排放绩效研究。在上述生产技术框架下，建立了大气污染物排放绩效评估模型，采用制造业实际数据进行实证分析。研究发现regional processing组的部门在“规模导向”减排策略下绩效更高，而labor-intensive tradable goods组的部门则在“创新导向”减排策略下表现更佳。. （4）考虑多种减排策略的减排成本研究。认识到减排成本不仅包括期望产出的损失，还包括资本的投入，课题改进了减排成本测度模型，并在考虑不同地区减排策略差异性的基础上，对我国区域减排成本进行了分析。研究发现我国各地区减排成本均值为246元/吨，而传统模型可能会低估减排成本。. （5）非参数模型逆序问题的拓展研究。首先对其进行了理论解释，进而构建逆序指数对五种常用模型的逆序现象进行了比较分析。研究表明RAM和DDF模型逆序程度最大，SBM模型逆序程度最小。