乡村振兴战略背景下的中国农户信用评级：机制、效应与制度优化

For lacking production or start-up capital, and not in line with conditions of bank mortgage guarantee, farmers often choose to go out for work. This situation is not conducive to farmers’ entrepreneurship or employment in their own hometown, and as well as to the implementation of rural revitalization strategy. The reform and innovation of loan technology, in addition to innovation of mortgage guarantee (such as land management mortgage) that scholars paying attention to, also includes the application of credit rating, which is a substitute of mortgage guarantee. With the promotion of People’s Bank of China or local governments, some counties have become the experimental area of rural credit system construction, and credit rating of farmers has been carried out. In context of rural revitalization strategy, and from three perspectives: farmers (institutional beneficiaries), financial institutions (institutional practitioner), and markets (formal finance vs. informal finance), this project will study the effect of farmers’ credit rating in China. Based on the experimental practice, this project makes a research on the peasant households’ system response. Analyze the effects of credit rating: its influence on heterogeneity farmers’ formal credit demand and availability, effect on the income gap and poverty in peasant households, impact on the performance and social performance of financial institutions, and its promotion to informal finance’s formalization. At the same time, this project classifies the rating mechanism from three aspects: subject, object and method, and based on this, compares their effect difference and validity. This project’s theoretical value lies in the effect analysis’ framework of Chinese farmers’ credit rating, and the practical significance is to provide basis for the optimization of Chinese farmers’ credit rating system.

农户往往因为缺乏生产与创业资金，不符合银行抵押担保条件而选择外出务工，不利于返乡创业、就业，不利于乡村振兴战略的实施。贷款技术的创新，除了学者们关注的抵押担保方式创新（如土地经营权抵押）外，还包括对抵押担保替代品——信用评级的应用。在人民银行或地方政府推动下，部分县域开展了农户信用评级。本项目从农户（制度受益方）、金融机构（制度践行者）和市场（二元金融结构）三个角度，研究中国农户信用评级效应：立足于试验区实践，考察农户的制度响应，分析信用评级对异质性农户正规信贷需求及可获性的影响，剖析对农户内部收入差距及贫困的作用，探究对金融机构经营绩效和社会绩效的影响，讨论对正规金融替代非正规金融的促进。同时，从评级主体、对象和方法三个方面对评级机制进行分类，比较不同评级机制的有效性和效应差异。项目的理论价值在于构建中国农户信用评级效应分析的理论框架，实践意义在于为中国农户信用评级制度优化提供依据。

2022年中央一号文件强调“发展农户信用贷款”；本项目可以为“信用评级+信用贷款”这一中国小额信贷模式的开展提供科学依据。研究内容包括：农户的制度响应；信用评级对农户融资、创业和消费的影响；对农户内部收入差距及城乡收入差距的作用；对正规金融替代非正规金融的促进；对开展评级金融机构绩效的影响。.主要结论：（1）个体因素方面，农户金融素养越高，风险厌恶程度越低，参与评级的意愿及申请评级的概率越高；制度因素方面，村“两委”参与程度越高、不公示评级结果、信息保护制度完备，以及评定等级为利率优惠依据的地区，农户参与度越高。（2）信用评级可以提高农户的正规信贷需求及可获性；缘于此，对农户创业和消费均具有积极影响。（3）相较于高收入农户，信用评级对提高低收入农户信贷需求及可获性的积极影响更加显著，因此，农户信用评级对村庄基尼系数的增长具有显著的抑制作用，而对低收入户收入占比的增长具有显著的促进作用；信用评级的开展能够缩小县域内城乡收入差距，且影响机制是抑制农村资金外流。（4）通过缓解高收入农户的自我信贷配给以及低收入农户的银行信贷配给，信用评级显著促进了正规金融对非正规金融的替代。（5）虽然农户信用评级增加了农村商业银行的经营成本，但同时也显著提高了其营业收入，并对较高的不良贷款率具有显著的抑制作用；总体而言，开展信用评级对农村商业银行社会绩效和经营绩效的提升均具有显著的促进作用。（6）不同制度安排的影响差异方面，在村“两委”参与程度较高，以及评定等级绑定利率优惠的制度安排下，农户信用评级的效果增强。.我们认为，应鼓励传统农村金融机构利用地缘优势开展农户信用评级；努力提高村“两委”的参与程度；考虑将评定等级绑定利率优惠。中国农户对信用的认识仍然停留在道德层面，金融素养有待提高，信用评级应作为农村金融知识培训重点内容；制度方面，依据农村各地实情，适当缩小评级结果的公示范围，进一步完善农户信息保护机制。