财政分权、政府间经济职能分工与我国宏观经济稳定：生成机制、实证检验与改革方略选择

Local governments have dual identity attributes and played very important roles in economic and social development and macroeconomic stability in China. In order to provide support for designing and establishing long term rectification mechanism of namaging Chinese economic cycle, this study try to clarify and empirically test the generative mechanism of how Chinese decentralization reform, economic function division between central and local governments lead to macroeconomic unstability. Firstly, based on macroeconomic stylized facts in China, exploring the theoretical mechanism that under political centralization but economic decentralization institutional framework, action selections of central and local governments during their collaboration and game course are asymmetry in different stage of Chinese economic cycle which are endogenous in fiscal and administrative control system, and such will lead to macroeconomic unstability. Secondly, empirically testing impact channels in provincial government level such as fiscal multiplier of government expenditures and resource creation abilities which are primarily attributed to non standard decentralization between central and local governments.Optimizing incentive structure and behavior mechanism design for Conflict and coordination of interest between central and local governments in macroeconomic areas, will contribute to stabilize macroeconomy.

鉴于双重身份属性的地方政府在我国经济社会发展和宏观经济波动中的重要作用，就本项目从多级政府框架下集体行为视角切入，拟系统阐明并实证检验中国分权式改革、中央与地方宏观经济职能分工与宏观经济波动之间的生成机制，为设计并建立治理中国特色经济周期的长效矫正机制服务。首先，基于我国宏观经济波动的典型特征事实，探究政治集权、经济和财政分权改革战略安排下，财政体制和行政管理体制所内含的中国特色振荡型经济周期不同阶段，中央和地方政府合作和博弈所对应的中央和地方政府行为选择，进而生成宏观经济稳定冲击的理论机制；其次，主要从源于政府间经济领域不恰当分权，所对应的生产性政府支出乘数效应以及地方政府资源创造能力对于我国宏观经济波动的影响渠道角度，分三个子课题在我国省级政府层面进行实证检验。完善宏观经济领域中央和地方政府间利益冲突与协调的激励结构和行为机制设计，有助于从根本上解决内生于中国分权改革的宏观经济波动。

为探究分权式改革、政府间经济职能分工与我国宏观经济稳定的生成和长效治理机制，本项目试图从政府支出和经济领域不规范分权两个主要渠道机制进行实证检验。从已完成研究看，不同周期状态下财政政策的异质性产出和通货膨胀效应研究以及省级政府层面政府生产性支出的私人投资挤出和挤入效应研究表明，以财政支出形式体现的政府财政职能应呈现差异性，而中国财政货币政策的通货膨胀和产出效应研究、乘数效应、货币政策转型、财政货币政策协调机制则为探讨政府财政货币政策调控奠定坚实的理论和实证基础。. 在经济领域不规范分权与宏观经济稳定关系维度，环境保护、精准扶贫和高质量发展等领域政府间事权分权，有助于分领域厘清政府间事权和支出责任划分和配置问题，自然资源资产收益分配、资源税改革等与地方政府资源创造相关联的研究，有助于清晰理解地方政府在宏观经济稳定中的重要作用，而促进慈善捐赠的企业所得税改革、消费税改革等税收制度改革研究，则有助于从政府间税权划分视角理解地方政府经济利益和经济干预行为。