高铁对区域旅游经济的异质性影响：理论与实证研究

The high-speed rail (HSR) has a profound impact on regional tourism economies in China, which has not been investigated systematically. This impact tends to be disparate spatially and temporally, termed the heterogeneity impact of HSR. A series of factors may lead to the heterogeneity impact of HSR, such as regional resource endowments, transportation condition as well as the span the HSR’ impact is examined. First, we construct an augmented gravity model and a spatial competition model to clarify the mechanism of how HSR impacts regional tourism economy. Then, employing the panel data from 178 administrative cities in Eastern and Central China where there is a dense HSR network, we empirically examine the heterogeneity of HSR’ impact spatially and temporally. Specifically, we employ the difference-in-differences technique to estimate whether there exists a gap in tourism economy between regions in HSR network and those outside HSR network, and whether the gap varies depending on transportation accessibility and tourism resources of a region. We also estimate the immediate impact and lagged impact of HSR, and utilize the cluster analysis method to examine whether the tourism economy cluster area shifts after the introduction of HSR network. Last, relied on a field research we come up with the strategies to cope with the heterogeneity impact of HSR. This project contributes to the theory of regional tourism economy, and provides destination management organizations and tourism enterprises with the advices on how to effectively incorporate the HSR element into their operation strategy.

国内绝大多数研究均假定高铁开通对我国区域旅游经济是一个重大利好，忽视高铁影响的异质性。该异质性指区域禀赋与区位不同，或者考察的时间维度不同，高铁对区域旅游经济的影响存在显著差异。本课题基于旅游需求理论和空间竞争理论构建修正的引力模型、高铁与空间竞争模型，阐明高铁异质性影响区域旅游经济的机理。然后，以我国东中部地区178个城市为样本，收集面板数据，从空间和时间两个维度实证该异质性影响。包括：利用双重差分模型估计开通高铁区域与未通高铁区域其旅游经济增长是否存在差异、该差异是否随着样本区域禀赋与区位条件的不同而变化，利用空间计量模型估计高铁的溢出效应；估计高铁影响的即期效应和滞后效应，利用聚类分析法研究高铁开通之后旅游经济的集聚板块是否发生位移。最后，结合实地调研提出应对高铁异质性影响的策略。本课题的研究可推进高铁背景下的区域旅游经济理论，为相关部门与企业如何将高铁元素纳入发展策略提供指导意见。

国内绝大多数研究均假定高铁开通对我国区域旅游经济是一个重大利好，忽视高铁影响的.异质性。该异质性指区域禀赋与区位不同，或者考察的时间维度不同，高铁对区域旅游经济的.影响存在显著差异。本课题基于旅游需求理论和空间竞争理论构建修正的引力模型、高铁与空.间竞争模型，阐明高铁异质性影响区域旅游经济的机理。然后，以我国东中部地区178个城市.为样本，收集面板数据，从空间和时间两个维度实证该异质性影响。包括：利用双重差分模型.估计开通高铁区域与未通高铁区域其旅游经济增长是否存在差异、该差异是否随着样本区域禀.赋与区位条件的不同而变化，利用空间计量模型估计高铁的溢出效应；估计高铁影响的即期效.应和滞后效应，利用聚类分析法研究高铁开通之后旅游经济的集聚板块是否发生位移。最后，.结合实地调研提出应对高铁异质性影响的策略。本课题的研究可推进高铁背景下的区域旅游经.济理论，为相关部门与企业如何将高铁元素纳入发展策略提供指导意见。