农户生产联结(PPL)机制及其关联性信用风险演化机理研究

One of the major problems hindering the development of rural economy is the difficult problem of peasant household production cooperation, which is directly related to the credit default of peasant households. However, a workable and effective approach has not yet been found from the present situation..This project takes the peasant household produce linkage (PPL) as the object to deeply analyze the intrinsic essence of the feasibility of peasant household production cooperation and benefit linkage in PPL, and reveals the conditions of peasant household credit establishment—as the link of PPL mechanism and its’risk evolution mechanism . Besides, it constructs the network model of associated credit in PPL mechanism, and analyzes the evolution and transmission effect of associated credit risks in the linkage mechanism .It also establishes the optimization configuration model of PPL production cooperation to carry out analog simulation, which provides theoretical support for the identification of peasant household associated credit risks and the continuity of peasant household production cooperation development. This study will sort out and refine the specific conditions of implementing the PPL mechanism and the factors affecting the stability of PPL in rural areas, and provide the basic materials for the promotion of the PPL mechanism; the study expects to achieve the maximum effect of peasant household credit reconstruction with the minimum cost so as to fundamentally solve “the difficulties for peasant household production cooperation” that are widespread in rural China.

当前阻碍农村经济发展的重大难题之一，是农户生产合作难问题，该问题与农户信用缺失直接相关。然而，从目前情况来看，尚未找到切实可行的有效办法。. 该项目以农户生产联结(Peasant household Produce Linkage, PPL)为对象，深入剖析PPL机制中农户生产合作、利益联结可行性的内在本质，揭示作为PPL机制联系的纽带--农户信用，其建立的条件及其风险演化机理；构造PPL机制中关联性信用网络模型，分析联结机制中关联信用风险的传染演化效应，建立PPL生产合作优化配置模型，并进行模拟仿真，为农户关联信用风险的识别及农户生产合作发展的延续性提供理论支持。本研究将梳理和提炼农村实施PPL机制的具体条件和影响PPL稳定性因素，为PPL机制的推广提供基础材料；研究以期以最小的成本付出，获得最大的农户信用重建效果，从而从根本上破解我国农村普遍存在的农户生产合作难困境。

该项目以农户生产联结(Peasant household Produce Linkage, PPL)为对象，深入剖析PPL机制中农户生产合作、利益联结可行性的内在本质，基于随机微分方程、网络理论、信度理论、动态仿真模型等理论与方法，研究农户关联信用风险的演化过程及传染效应，并进行模拟仿真。. 研究结论表明，现今的以社会网络为基础的农户生产合作机制对普通农户激励无效。基于研究假设提出的“农户生产联结”机制，其稳定性呈现出“信用”与“契约”替代互补效应。相对于个体农户，与集体交易比例的增加将对系统稳定性的收敛意义更大。. 本项目研究成果的学术价值在于：提出了农户生产联结的经济学概念；梳理和提炼了农村实施生产联结的具体条件和影响联结稳定性的因素，拓展了农户生产合作理论。可以推断，现今的以土地流转方式实现的土地规模化经营方式，由于高昂的交易费用，并不能有效起到扩大生产规模的作用，生产规模的扩大应该以农业横向分工为基础，实施纵向联结。