农村金融联结机制及其关联信用风险演化机理研究

As a new mode of agricultural loan, financial linkage gradually evolved into a rural financing strategy in many developing countries. The success of financial linkage mechanism’s running depends on the credit relationship that maintains the stability of the system.. This project take financial linkage mechanism as research object, proceeds from the essence of credit, uses rural financial, complex networks, computer simulation and other related theories to study the inner cohesive motivation leading to the formulation of financial linkage, and also selects and evaluates the village intermediary organization pattern that financial linkage mechanism relies on, constructs farmers associated credit risk network model in financial linkage, analyzes the effect of evolution and infection mechanism of the associated credit risk in linkage mechanism, develops an evolution model of financial linkage system and an optimal allocation model of the credit funds, then performs simulations to provide theoretical support for the continuity of the development of financial linkage and the recognition of farmers associated credit risk..This study will generalize and abstract specific conditions to implement the financial linkage mechanism in rural areas and factors that influence the stability of financial linkage, to provide basic materials for the promotion of financial linkage mechanism. Aimed at the defects of traditional agricultural loan mode, some leading enterprises, industry associations, farmers specialized cooperative organizations can make full use of the personal information of the farmers, to solve the weak peer monitoring that has long troubled financial institutions by using the financial linkage mechanism.

金融联结作为新的农贷模式逐渐演变成为许多发展中国家的农村融资战略。金融联结机制运行的成败，取决于维系其系统稳定的信用关系。 本项目以金融联结机制为研究对象，从信用的本质出发，运用农村金融、复杂网络、计算机仿真等相关理论，研究金融联结形成的内聚动因，选择并评价金融联结机制所依托的乡村中介组织模式，构造金融联结中农户关联信用风险网络模型，分析联结机制中关联信用风险的演化效应及传染机理，建立金融联结系统演化和信贷资金优化配置模型，并进行模拟仿真，为农户关联信用风险的识别及金融联结发展的延续性提供理论支持。 本研究将梳理和提炼农村实施金融联结机制的具体条件和影响金融联结稳定性的因素，为金融联结机制的推广提供基础材料；针对传统农贷模式的缺陷，运用金融联结机制, 一些龙头企业、行业协会、农民专业合社可以充分利用农户私人信息，解决一直困扰金融机构的弱横向监督问题。

本项目以金融联结机制为研究对象，从信用的本质出发，运用农村金融、复杂网络、计算机仿真等相关理论，研究金融联结形成的内聚动因，选择并评价金融联结机制所依托的乡村中介组织模式，梳理和提炼了农村实施金融联结机制的具体条件和影响金融联结稳定性的因素，研究了金融联结的12种模式，为金融联结机制的推广提供基础材料；构造金融联结中农户关联信用风险的网络模型和信用风险的评价指标体系；基于随机微分方程、信度理论、可变精度粗糙集等理论与方法,从各个不同视角开展了金融联结机制的信用风险评价的研究，建立了金融联结系统演化和信贷资金优化配置模型，并进行模拟仿真，为农户关联信用风险的识别及金融联结发展的延续性提供理论支持。 最后，本项目研究成果的学术价值在于：拓展了信用风险评价理论与研究领域，对形成金融联结信用风险评价的方法体系，将具有十分重要的支撑作用。