政治关系对地价、房价的影响机制研究

As the land market is completely controlled in the hand of government, political connection has become one of the most important mechanisms for the real estate firms to obtain cheap land and high profits. Using a unique sample of thousands of land and real estate transactions in China from 2008 to 2016, this research examines the impact mechanism of political connection on the land prices and real estate prices. Based on the anti-corruption since 2013 in China, this research also analysis the different effects of political connection on the land and real estate prices before and after the anti-corruption. Finally, this research will use event study methods to examine the reaction of investors on the politically connected land transactions. This project would contribute the literature about political connection and real estate. Few existing literature provides such mechanisms how firms can benefit from their political connection, and often the relation between political connection and firm behavior is inferred or implied by statistical results. On the other hand, this research would help us to understand the forming mechanisms of the land and real estate prices, which would provide more empirical evidences for the real estate policies.

我国土地资源稀缺，并且几乎完全掌握在地方政府手中，使得政治关系逐步成为房地产开发企业获得廉价土地资源，追求高额利润的重要手段。本课题拟利用2008-2016年间我国主要房地产企业的土地交易数据和房屋销售数据，从土地起始价和土地交易方式入手，探讨房地产企业的政治关系对土地价格、房价的影响及其作用机制。然后借助2013年之后的高强度反腐这一外生事件，着重分析反腐败前后政治关系对土地价格、房价的影响差异。最后本课题将利用事件研究法检验股票市场投资者对于土地交易的反应。本课题的研究一方面将弥补现有政治关系、房地产文献的不足，另一方面也将有助于我们从微观层面上深入了解土地价格、房价的形成机制，为我国的房地产政策提供实证依据。

房地产市场是我国地方政府财政收入最重要来源之一，在地方经济中也占据着重要地位，近年来受到学者的广泛关注。本课题主要研究了两方面的内容：首先，我们利用微观土地和住宅交易数据，深入探讨了政治关系对土地价格、房地产价格的影响及其内在作用机制。发现有政治关系的企业土地起始价较低，并且更倾向于通过挂牌出让方式拿地，进而降低了土地价格和房价，而反腐败政策弱化了这些机制的作用。我们还发现政治关系对土地价格的影响在公司总部所在城市、市场化水平较低的城市更为显著，而在土地资源较少和土地财政依赖度较高的地区影响较小，而且有政治关系的上市房地产企业的土地交易将产生正的超额股票收益率；然后，我们进一步探讨了研究了撤县设区、政府搬迁、官员变更、晋升激励、货币政策、经济政策不确定性、房产税对于土地价格、房价的影响，发现这些政策都显著影响了土地和住房市场。本研究丰富了房地产市场和地方政府治理的相关研究。