极端低温天气气候事件对呼吸系统疾病影响研究

At present, under the background of global abnormal climate change, adaptive capacity of human to the extreme low temperature may have declined as a result of warm winter in recent 30 years. However, extreme low temperature weather and climate events occurred frequently in recent winters, which will lead to aggravation of weather sensitive disease or even death to these people who can't adapt to extreme low temperature quickly. This fact havn't attract enough attention.Though existing studies shows that low temperature events really have important direct influence on respiratory system diseases, solution is not clear under how to evaluate the influence of extreme low temperature events on sensitive diseases scientifically and contact morbidity, death of diseases with meteorological factors. Using synoptic data, respiratory system diseases data in Nanjing and Lanzhou which can represent south and north climatic region respectively and methods including statistic analysis,epidemiology survey and biochemical criterion detection of patients,this program is planning to develop a method of new "wind chill index",evaluate the influence of climate change on respiratory system disease in these two cities,compare and analyze the correlation,mechanism and critical condition between wind chill index and regular incidence and prevalence pattern of respiratory system diseases when extreme low temperature happens in south and north typical cities. The result of this program may provide scientific basis for people to realize influence and corresponding mechanism of the extreme low temperature events on disease of respiratory system,study the forecasting methods and formulate prevention and control measures for sentitive diseases.

全球气候异常变化背景下，我国前几十年暖冬的出现导致人们抵御低温严寒的身体机能明显减退，但近几年冬季极端低温天气频频出现，使得相关脆弱人群由于一时难以很快适应而造成敏感疾病流行、加重和明显的超额死亡，此问题尚未引起足够重视。已有研究表明，低温对呼吸系统疾病确有重要的直接影响，但如何科学度量与评价极端低温对呼吸系统等敏感性疾病的影响，以什么样的桥梁或纽带将气象因素与此类疾病的发病乃至死亡联系起来，目前还没有有效的解决途径。因此，本项目拟发展一套新型风寒指数的计算方法，利用南京和兰州两个南、北方不同气候区代表城市气象要素与疾病等资料，采用气象统计分析、流行病学调查和患者生化指标检测等手段，系统对比研究南北方典型地区极端低温事件发生时，风寒指数与呼吸系统疾病发病和流行的关联性、机理及临界条件，为深入认识极端低温天气对呼吸系统疾病影响的程度与机理，科学预测和防控呼吸系统疾病的发病与流行提供科学依据。

自2008年以来，我国极端低温天气气候事件在近几个冬季接连发生，这削弱了已经适应了前几十年暖冬气候的相关人群抵御区域异常极端低温事件所带来的气象要素急剧变化的能力，尤其是对于呼吸系统疾病有使其流行、加重和明显的超额死亡的显著影响。为了科学度量极端低温事件对于呼吸系统疾病的影响，本项目首先利用“黄金分割法”建立了较好的风寒指数计算方法，利用此指数研究了我国大陆近几十年舒适度和体感温度的时空分布特征；选择南京和兰州两个南北方代表城市，探明了两个城市近几十年的体感温度和风寒指数气候特征及呼吸系统疾病的变化特征；在此基础上，以风寒指数为联系气候变化和呼吸系统疾病关系的工具，研究得到了冷空气过程和极端低温对于呼吸系统疾病的影响机理，确定了包括风寒指数在内的呼吸系统疾病发生时主要气象要素的阈值，得到了冷空气过程和极端低温显著影响呼吸系统疾病死亡的临界条件。同时，在研究过程中发现，影响呼吸系统疾病死亡率显著升高的冷空气过程中，中高纬度阻塞高压是最为重要的系统之一，因此利用CMIP5模式资料评估了现有气候模式对欧亚关键区阻塞高压的模拟能力，探讨了模式模拟误差的可能原因，并对其未来变化及其对我国未来冬季低温的影响进行了预估。研究结果不仅可以深化对极端低温过程形成及其对于呼吸系统疾病影响机理的认识，得到的相关阈值也可为冬季呼吸系统疾病的防控提供科学理论依据。