基于情感和动态变化的风险决策研究

Risk or opportunity constitutes a paradoxical situation for risk-taking decisions, such as in new venture creation or risky project investment. Conservation may miss opportunity, whereas extreme optimism in risk-taking is likely to result in failure and large economic loss. Addressing the fundamental theoretical questions about risk-taking in decision-making, that is what drive decision-makers to take risks under uncertainty and how experience affects risk-taking, this research aims at conceptualizing an Affective Dynamic Venture Decision-making Model (ADVDM) to investigate the interactive effects between cognitive risk judgment (subjective value, subjective probability), emotional reaction (immediate anxiety), and the learning process in risk-taking, particularly for the individual differences, which will be an extension to the previous static and pure cognitive theory, such as prospect theory. This theoretical model expands four boundary conditions of prospect theory: 1. individual differences in risk preference: unlike prospect theory which assumes that the option the majority like represents higher utility over its alternative, the ADVDM interprets why individuals differ in preference; 2.its temporal change：Taking place the assumption that risk preference does not change in prospect theory, ADVDM investigates how risk-preference changes in different environmental conditions; 3. Instead of weights in prospect theory, ADVDM incorporates subjective probability to denote the perceived uncertainty levels of risky choice; 4. Emotion: adding immediate anxiety into the ADVDM, there is one more variable to represent the residual of the rational analysis. The ADVDM also reveals how anticipant emotions on the outcomes of risky choice affect the subjective judgment of value and probability and the psychological mechanism of emotions in risk-taking. To examine the major theoretical presumptions, this project incorporates a novel method by the combination of probability matching and signal monitoring theory to reveal the dynamic relationships between risk-preference change and risk recognization. Mixed methods including interview, survey, and economic experiment will be conducted to provide empirical evidence. In so doing, we attempt to set up the qualitative and quantitative dataset for risk decision-making. The data will be analyzed by advanced statistic methods, such as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM).

风险决策是一个可能导致巨大成功亦或巨大失败的两难决策情境。本课题对展望理论（prospect theory）的四个边界条件：即风险偏好的个体差异、权重、动态变化及情绪过程进行扩展，探索风险的认知评价、情绪性反应、及经验和学习之间的交互作用对风险决策的影响。本课题创新性地将信号识别(signal detection)理论和概率匹配(probability matching)理论相结合应用于风险识别的动态实验设计中，以揭示风险偏好（risk -reference）改变和风险识别在动态变化环境下的学习过程和因果关系。本课题将通过访谈、调查和经济实验相结合的方法建立风险决策的定性和定量数据库，并应用结构方程（SEM）和多水平线性模型（HLM）进行量化分析。本课题将对更好地理解风险决策情境的复杂性、动态变化性、情绪机制、以及决策经验带来的决策偏差提供理论性的支撑和实证的发现，从而更好地管理风险决策。

背景和内容：风险与机遇构成风险决策的两难境地。以往的决策模型，比如期望理论、主观期望理论(Savage, 1954)、以及展望理论(Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) 都是基于静态的或一些强制性假设，不能充分认识到个体在冒险行为中的差异及经验和学习的作用，同时也缺乏对人类情绪、情感在风险、不确定下对决策影响的作用的探讨。本项研究主要是通过对展望理论的四个边界条件的扩展，构建在动态变化下的决策理论并提供实验证据，从而更好地理解风险决策的风险偏好如何受到学习、客观概率及情绪、情感的影响的。..重要结果1.发现在不同概率条件下，尽管都是在获得的框架下，人们的风险决策偏好并不总是厌恶风险的，在某些概率条件下，人们可以变的更倾向于寻求风险。2:研究发现对于同样的风险决策任务，新手和有经验者的决策策略有很大的不同。影响风险决策的两个变量交互对决策起作用。3:发现决策中错误的风险寻求决策和机遇的错失对风险偏好的改变有影响。在决策绩效的影响因素中，风险寻求的增加与客观概率交互作用对风险决策绩效有显著影响。4:研究发现情绪对风险决策有很大的影响。其中一个影响是情绪的区分能力和不同的概率条件交互作用影响风险决策绩效。5: 研究发现在动态的风险决策实验中，人的情绪在时间序列上在不同的概率条件下表现出非线性变化特征。..科学意义：对展望理论的四个决策边界条件进行了扩展，发现了人们风险决策的学习对风险偏好变化的影响，风险偏好的改变和决策绩效之间关系的心理机制。发现了情绪对风险决策结果的影响以及情绪自身在时间序列上表现出的非线性变化规律。..应用前景：本研究属于基础理论研究，对风险决策中如何避免过于冒险以及错过机遇提供了理论的构造和实证的支撑，可以用该理论的发现对风险决策的人员进行培训，对提高风险决策者的决策质量有很重要的应用前景。