景区游客拥堵形成、演化机理及态势识别研究

Appropriate control of the visiting behavior is the most ideal means for building a safe and friendly scenic spot. It is one of the most competitive research fields of tourism management not only at present but also in the future. In recent years, the study of prediction and control of tourists’ behavior has made great progress. However, there are many limitations existed not only in the operating principles of the management and control but also in the strategy taking in the control process. Combining the current research status with the research accumulation of the applicant, this project focuses on natural scenic spot system aiming to explore the evolution law of the touring structure of network based on the complex network, do some deep research in formation of congestion and its evolution mechanism, furthermore, identify and dynamically forecast the congestion status of a scenic spot by the fuzzy inference model. This project will provide decision making basis and technical support for the intervention and control of tourists’ behavior, accumulate the law of visiting behavior, and lay the theoretical foundation for the transformation and upgrading of scenic tourist management mode.

恰当的游客游览行为管控是构建安全、友好型景区的最理想手段，这是目前和未来最有竞争力的旅游管理研究领域之一。近年来，游客游览行为的预测与控制研究取得了可喜的进展，但是无论从游客管控的实施依据，还是游客控制过程所采用的策略手段都具有很大的局限性。本项目就是结合景区管理研究现状和申请人的研究积累，以自然风景区系统为研究对象，从自然风景区游览线路的网络结构特征出发，基于复杂网络的理论方法，探索景区路网结构随游客规模、时间演进的变化规律，并在此基础上对自然风景区内部景点上游客拥堵形成和迁徙机理展开深入研究，并应用模糊推理的技术手段对目标景点游客拥堵态势进行识别与动态预测，以期为设计有效的游客聚集干预和控制措施提供决策依据和技术支撑，积累对游客游览行为特征规律的认识，进而为景区游客管理模式的转型与升级奠定理论基础。

该研究课题以自然风景区为研究对象，探索了景区内游客拥堵态势形成机理及其迁徙规律，从而实现了对目标景点上游客拥堵态势的识别与预测。其具体研究内容包括景区游线网络拓扑结构演进分析；游客拥堵在景区路网上的形成与演化机理研究和景点游客拥堵态势识别与预测研究三个主要部分。上述内容的研究在一定程度上揭示了复杂环境下密集游客的流动特征及规律，为游客群体状态识别、预测提供了技术与方法，为预防密集游客群体的形成，减少群体突发性事件的发生提供技术支撑，为自然风景区游客管控提供了科学的解决方案和理论依据。同时，该项目的研究结果也可为公共复杂场域的人员流动研究提供借鉴。依托本项目，共发表学术论文9篇，其中6篇被SCI检索，1篇被SSCI 检索，1篇被EI检索。