基于多源数据的城镇居民用电行为机理、模式及环境综合影响研究

Excessive energy consumption and carbon emissions caused by unreasonable residential electricity utilization behavior have become increasingly serious in recent years. Study from the perspective of behavioral science has becoming a hot spot and new trend in the field of residential sustainable consumption in energy consumption analysis. Especially in the context of big data, large-scale, multi-sources data outpouring continually, which provide us both challenges for addressing new scientific issues and, also, new possibilities for residents' low carbon consumption behavior study. In this context, our project utilizes multiple sources of data (real-time monitoring data, data crawling from web pages and survey data, etc.) comprehensively to build an electricity consumption behavior basic database for urban residents in China. And on this data basis, characteristics and patterns of residential electricity utilization behavior could be clarified, key influence factors of residential electricity utilization behavior could be identified, mechanism of residential electrical energy saving behavior could be revealed. Then after residents’ electricity saving scenario building and environmental synthetic effect assessment, the targeted policy list and management strategy could be proposed. Which not only contribute to resolve the practical conflicts between unbalanced and inadequate electricity supply and the diversified development of domestic residential electricity consumption, but also making academic contribution to enriching and improving theoretical system of residential sustainable consumption behavior.

居民不合理的电力消费带来过度能源消耗与碳排放问题日益严峻，从行为角度开展居民可持续消费方面的研究已经成为能源消费领域的热点与新趋势。尤其是大数据背景下，大规模、多种来源数据不断涌现，产生新的科学问题的同时也为居民低碳消费行为研究提供新的契机。为此，本课题综合利用多种来源数据（居民用电实时监测数据、网络爬取数据与微观调研数据等），构建中国城镇居民电力消费行为基础数据库。在此基础上，厘清城镇居民用电行为特征与模式、识别影响居民用电行为关键影响因素、揭示居民节电行为机理、基于居民节电行为情景进行环境综合效应评估，进而提出有针对性的政策清单及管理策略。该成果为解决新时期我国居民用电多元化发展和电力市场供给不平衡、不充分之间的矛盾具有重要现实意义，同时对于丰富和完善居民可持续消费行为理论体系具有一定学术价值。

开展基于多源数据的城镇居民用电行为机理、模式及环境综合影响研究，是数据驱动居民可持续消费行为决策的前瞻性工作，也是服务我国2030年碳达峰与2060年碳中和重大战略需求的重要支撑。尤其是大数据背景下，大规模、多种来源数据不断涌现，产生新的科学问题的同时也为居民低碳消费行为研究提供新的契机。为此，本课题综合利用多种来源数据，构建中国城镇居民电力消费行为基础数据库；在此基础上，厘清城镇居民用电行为特征与模式、识别影响居民用电行为关键影响因素、揭示居民节电行为机理、基于居民节电行为情景进行环境综合效应评估，进而提出有针对性的政策清单及管理策略。.项目获批后，主持人以此为基础先后承担博士后基金特别资助、自然科学基金面上项目、北京市自然科学基金、北京市社科基金等多项项目；在《管理世界》、《中国管理科学》、One earth、Omega等发表SCI/SSCI收录论文20余篇，ESI高被引4篇。申请人搭建的电力数据平台与分析系统获批软件著作权4项，申请发明专利7项；提交政策提案与报告11份，获国办、工信部、首都高端智库等采纳、批示、立案或应用，有效支撑政府与企业决策；作为第三完成人，获教育部自然科学奖、北京市自然科学奖，管理科学学会学术类管理科学奖等多项奖励和荣誉；2021年入选国家万人计划“青年拔尖人才”。.该成果为解决新时期我国居民用电多元化发展和电力市场供给不平衡、不充分之间的矛盾，助力“双碳”目标实现具有重要现实意义，同时对于丰富和完善居数据驱动民可持续消费行为理论体系具有重要学术价值。