生物安全事件应对体系中控制危险源扩散的建模与研究

With the rapid development of biotechnology and economic globalization, the society becomes more complex and uncertainty, and the development of enviroment structure continues to diversify. Biosecurity threats, which includes the nature outbreak of contagious disease and the bioterrorist attacks, have become one of the greatest security threats and caused the enormous pressure to the economic development、the society stabilization and the physical or mental health of people.It is unavoidable and very urgent task to establish the emergency response system for biosecurity attacks. The key to emergency response to biosecurity is to undersand the rules and models of the diffusion of biological dangerous sources. Combining the epidemiological data and spread mechanism of biological dangerous sources, this project will focus on the dynamical models of the biolgical dangerous sources in the homogenous and heterogeneous population. The bifurcation，chaos and dynamic behaviours of ours model is analyzed. This project will show the rules and models of the diffusion of the biologial dangerous sources; And the diffusion thresholds and the relations between the thresholds and the population structure, the quarantine and vaccination measures, the pattern of the population dispersal in the emergence. The main factors and the best control strategies is quantitatively identified. By making use of the datas of SARS in the China, the theoretical conclusion of our project is checked. And a good reference will be set for emergency response to biosecurity attacks in the future.The results provide not only the new idea and method for the study on infective disease, but also the reference for establishment of the early warning defense system with emergence public health.

随着生物技术的发展和全球化进程的推进，以自然突发的恶性传染病和恶意制造的生物恐怖袭击为主要形式的生物安全威胁已成为现代社会最大的安全威胁之一，其对经济发展、社会稳定和公众身心健康有着十分重大的影响。对生物安全事件紧急应对机制的研究是各国高度关注的问题。而了解生物危险源扩散的规律和模式是生物安全事件应急处理的关键。本项目拟根据生物危险源的扩散机理和控制策略，拟重点研究在复杂人群交互网络环境下危险源扩散的动力学建模问题；分析所建模型的瞬时性态及渐近性态，分支及混沌，揭示危险源扩散的规律和模式；寻找扩散的阈值及其与种群结构及应急状态下个体的迁移模式、隔离措施、疫苗接种策略之间的关系；确定并量化关键因素和最优控制策略。拟利用SARS的流行数据，检验所获理论结果，为生物安全事件应对策略的制定奠定基础。本项目的研究结果不仅为传染病的研究提供新思路，新方法，而且为生物安全预警防御系统建设提供理论依据。

随着生物技术的发展和全球化进程的推进，以自然突发的恶性传染病和恶意制造的生物恐怖袭击为主要形式的生物安全威胁已成为现代社会最大的安全威胁之一，其对经济发展、社会稳定和公众身心健康有着十分重大的影响。对生物安全事件紧急应对机制的研究是各国高度关注的问题。而了解生物危险源扩散的规律和模式是生物安全事件应急处理的关键。本项目建立了考虑各类危险源扩散因素的动力学模型。确定各模型的阈值。得到了模型的渐近性态等动力学特性。揭示危险源扩散的规律和模式。分析了个体迁移策略、隔离措施、疫苗接种和治疗方案以及污染环境对扩散规律和模式的影响。提出了最优的控制措施。为生物安全预警防御系统的建设提供了理论依据。