预警模式下考虑多米诺效应的关键应急资源准备方案研究

Allocation and pre-adjustment of emergency resource during early warning period can avoid a state of chaos for supply and demand after the disaster, improve the efficiency of emergency disaster relief. Preparations based on domino effect during early warning period are more urgent than pre-disaster and facing greater uncertainty than post-disaster. However, it is necessary to connect emergency allocation and dynamic schedule plan during monitoring and early warning. On the other side, it also brings complexity of the decision-making. Based on domino effect and risk assessment and demand forecasting, this proposal focuses on emergency resource preparations during the early warning period. First, mechanism of domino effect and risk assessment during early warning period will be studied, Interaction & correlation between disaster change and domino effect will be analyzed. Second, emergency resource demand will be predicted. Finally, in order to satisfy timeliness, reliability and proportionality, preparations based on domino effect during early warning period is proposed, i.e. key early emergency resource allocation and dynamic coordination of emergency resources optimization scheme based on information update during early warning period. The project will impact on emergent resource management and provide important theoretical and practical significance.

启动突发事件预警后,预警期内的应急资源配置与战前动态调配工作，可避免灾害后供需混乱状态，显著提高应急救灾效率。预警期内考虑灾害后多米诺效应的应急资源配置与战前调配方案，比灾前宏观战略性储备方案更紧迫，比灾后具体应急资源调度又面对更强的不确定性，而又需要将配置和动态调度方案在监测与预警阶段结合起来,从而带来决策的复杂性。本项目在多米诺效应的机理分析及风险评估基础上进行需求预测，并以此为基础进行应急准备方案研究工作。首先，对预警模式下多米诺事故进行机理分析及风险评估，阐明灾害变化与多米诺效应的相互作用和关联规律；然后，在此基础上进行应急资源需求预测；最后，研究基于多米诺效应的应急资源准备决策问题，构建预警期内关键应急资源前期配置以及基于信息更新的应急资源动态协调优化方案，满足应急资源的时效性、全局性、可靠性、均衡性等要求。项目为应急资源科学管理提供决策方法支持，具有重要的理论价值和实际意义。

本项目研究了预警期内考虑灾害后多米诺效应的应急资源配置与战前调配问题。首先，针对化工园区产业带的事故，以能产生多米诺效应的事件作为分析重点，进行风险关联分析。研究了区域内的多米诺效应评估问题，多米诺效应传递机理及概率计算。然后，依此进行了多米诺效应下的需求信息预测分析，由于需求预测存在一定的误差性，将需求数据类型考虑为连续型不确定数据和离散型不确定数据两类进行处理。最后，研究了基于多米诺效应的应急资源准备决策问题，构建了预警期内基于需求预测结果的应急资源选址和配置的鲁棒优化决策模型，给出了满足实效性和全局性的应急资源布局方案。本研究的结果为应急预警和响应阶段的应急资源准备方案提供了决策支持。在本项目资助下，发表4篇学术论文，录用1篇学术论文。培养了4名硕士研究生，已毕业1人，在读3人。