尾矿库溃坝事故安全预警阙值及应急准备基础研究

"9.8"especially severe tailings pond failure accident caused 281 deaths and resulted nearly hundred million Yuan loss directly. In China, there are still 13 thousand tailings ponds registed, which are major hazard sources.So the study of tailings dam-break disaster early warning and emergency preparation theory, to improve the tailings dam-break risk assessment level of our country, scientific and rational assessment of the consequences of tailings dam-break accident severity, has important significance in improving the emergency response ability of dam-break accident. This study intends to adopt the means of investigation statistics, theoretical analysis, numerical calculation and engineering field tests, some breakthrough to severity assessment in the tailing dam safety early-warning threshold, dam-break damage range, consequences and the emergency response division method. The numerical simulation method to establish the key indicators of inversion analysis and forecast, tailings dam-break disaster early warning model and warning threshold calculation method was proposed; test model and the method to establish debris flow fluid discharged, the numerical simulation method of dam-break inundation area and the development of corresponding calculation program of the finite difference method based on the establishment of tailings dam-break method; and criteria to evaluate the severity of consequences; the emergency response division method of engineering geological and hydrogeological conditions based on the application of the above research results; in the tailings Shougang mineral company Yin Zhuang emergency control system in building.

"9.8"特别重大尾矿库溃坝事故共造成281人死亡，直接经济损失近亿元，全国尚有1.3万座尾矿库是重大危险源，因此研究尾矿库溃坝灾害预警及应急准备基础理论，对于提高我国尾矿库溃坝风险评价水平，科学合理地评估尾矿库溃坝事故后果严重度，提高溃坝事故应急准备能力具有重要意义。本项研究拟采用调研统计、理论分析、数值计算和现场试验等手段，力求在安全预警阙值、溃坝破坏范围、后果严重度评估及应急准备区划分方法等方面有所突破。建立关键指标反演分析和预测的数值模拟方法，提出尾矿库溃坝灾害定量预警模型和预警阈值计算方法；建立泥石流类流体下泄的试验模型和方法，基于有限差分法提出溃坝淹没范围的数值模拟方法并开发相应计算程序；建立尾矿库溃坝后果严重度的评估方法和标准；将应急准备区思想引入尾矿库风险诊断中提出基于工程和水文地质条件的应急准备区划分方法；将研究成果应用于首钢矿业公司尹庄尾矿库溃坝事故应急准备体系建立中。

“9.8”特别重大尾矿库溃坝事故共造成281人死亡，直接经济损失近亿元，全国尚有1.3万座尾矿库是重大危险源，因此研究尾矿库溃坝灾害预警及应急准备基础理论，对于提高我国尾矿库溃坝风险评价水平，科学合理地评估尾矿库溃坝事故后果严重度，提高溃坝事故应急准备能力具有重要意义。本项研究采用调研统计、理论分析、数值计算和现场试验等手段，研究得到了尾矿库5大类溃坝模式和24种可能的溃决路径，建立了尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系和评价模型；建立了泥石流类流体下泄的试验模型和方法，基于有限差分法提出溃坝淹没范围的数值模拟方法并开发相应计算程序；搭建了室内尾矿库溃坝实验物理模拟平台，完成了尾矿库溃坝实验，测定了实验过程的关键指标变化过程，研究了溃坝从开始预警至溃坝全过程的位移场、渗流场变化规律，研究了过泥量和过泥速度与致灾程度的耦合关系；研究得到了位移、浸润线埋深、库水位、干滩长度4个关键指标的安全预警阈值确定方法；将应急准备区引入尾矿库溃坝灾害的应急管控中，基于溃坝淹没范围计算结果，提出了3个不同级别应急准备区的划分标准；综合本项目上述成果，提出了防汛安全数字尾矿库系统的构架和建设方法，建成了数字尾矿库系统示范工程。研究成果可丰富尾矿库灾害基础理论和应急准备技术，对于预防尾矿库重特大事故发生及提高尾矿库溃坝事故风险防范能力具有一定意义。