考虑大气污染物协同控制和减排策略差异的城市二氧化碳边际减排成本研究

Estimating the marginal abatement costs of CO2 emissions for different cities is a scientific foundation for allocating carbon emission reduction responsibility in a reasonable way and the design of differentiated abatement policies at city level, which play significant roles for achieving the state goal of carbon peak. Both CO2 emissions and major air pollutants arise from fossil fuel combustion, and the choice of emission reduction strategies will likely affect abatement costs. Built upon the two observations, this project aims to integrate efficiency analysis, optimization method, econometric model, decomposition analysis and scenario analysis to conduct the following research. First, we analyze the emission characteristics, emission reduction performance and influential factors of CO2 and air pollutants. Second, we estimate the marginal abatement costs of CO2 emissions for main cities by considering the synergetic control of air pollutants under the scale and non-scale abatement strategies. Third, we investigate the potential impact of marginal abatement cost of CO2 emissions on emission reduction performance and identify the category of strategies for economically improve city-wide emission reduction performance. Based on the above research, we finally propose the policy recommendation for promoting city-wide carbon emission reduction and low-carbon development from the viewpoint of synergetic control. It is expected that the research proposed in this proposal helps to improve the methods for estimating marginal abatement costs and therefore make a contribution to the theory and methods of energy and climate change economics. On the other hand, we expect that the empirical research provides useful information for the allocation of the total CO2 emission allowance to different cities and the policy formulation for the synergetic reduction CO2 emissions and air pollutants.

城市二氧化碳边际减排成本的估计是城市层面碳减排责任合理分担及差别化减排政策设计的一个科学基础，而后两者对于经济实现碳减排及国家碳排放峰值目标意义重大。基于二氧化碳与大气污染物同根同源且减排策略的选择会影响减排成本的认识，本项目集成效率分析、优化方法、计量经济模型、分解分析、情景分析等多种方法工具，分析我国主要城市二氧化碳与大气污染物的排放特征、减排绩效及其影响因素；考虑大气污染物的协同控制，在规模和非规模控制策略情景下估计主要城市的二氧化碳边际减排成本；研究二氧化碳边际减排成本对减排绩效的影响，识别有利于经济提升城市减排绩效的策略类别；进而从协同控制视角凝练有利于促进我国城市碳减排和低碳发展的政策建议。以期从理论上完善二氧化碳边际减排成本的估计方法，丰富能源与气候变化经济学的理论方法体系，并为碳排放总量控制目标的城市分解及二氧化碳与大气污染物协同减排政策的制定提供决策依据。

城市二氧化碳边际减排成本的估计是城市层面碳减排责任合理分担及差别化减排政策设计的一个科学基础。项目以城市二氧化碳与大气污染物的排放绩效及边际减排成本为研究对象，构建环境绩效指数测度我国主要城市的排放绩效并分析其影响因素；在考虑多种排放的联合生产技术框架下，证明不同污染物影子价格的比值等于其边际技术替代率，发现在存在多种排放的情形下单独估计某一排放（如二氧化碳）的影子价格会造成低估，进一步论证了有必要在考虑二氧化碳和主要大气污染物协同控制的前提下估计二氧化碳排放影子价格；利用基于方向性距离函数的参数效率模型对我国城市二氧化碳及其他污染排放的边际减排成本进行了测算，分析了边际减排成本与其他一些变量之间的关系。在基金项目的支持下，课题组在The Energy Journal、Energy Economics、Ecological Economics、EJOR、《环境经济研究》等国内外期刊共发表了20余篇学术论文。项目执行期间，负责人获得国家杰出青年基金资助，入选江苏省333高层次人才工程（第二层次）、山东省泰山学者特聘专家，入选2018及2019年度科睿唯安全球高被引科学家；科研骨干入选山东省泰山学者青年专家。完成的成果“区域碳排放效率测度理论与方法”获得2017年度教育部自然科学二等奖。