效率分析视角下我国二氧化碳减排的责任与路径研究

Based upon the NSFC project led by the applicant, our team constructed nonparametric Malmquist carbon performance index with its bootstrapping algorithm and developed methods for measuring economy-wide energy efficiency and CO2 emission performance. Meanwhile, we conducted a series of empirical studies on China’s energy efficiency and environmental performance evaluation as well as CO2 emission anlaysis by using efficiency models with undesirable outputs. Our research has led to 18 publications in the reputable international and national journals such as Energy Economics. This project, built upon the latest developments in the fields of CO2 emission analysis and efficiency models with undesirable outputs, has three main objectives described as follows. First, we shall develop the production theoretical decomposition analysis techniques for exploring the driving forces of the increase in China’s CO2 emissions. Second, we shall develop efficiency models for examining the distribution of China’s CO2 emission reduction responsibility to various regions and sectors. Additionally, we will consider fairness factor to refine the responsibility distribution schemes by incorporating the discrepancies across regions and sectors. Third, we shall derive the dynamic paths for emission reduction in different regions and sectors and explore the optimal strategies for China to reduce its CO2 emissions. It is expected that the research performed in this project will not only promote the development of efficiency models and carbon emission analysis methods but also provide decision support for China to achieve its emission reduction targets in a scientific and economic manner.

在青年科学基金项目研究中，构建了非参数曼奎斯特碳排放绩效指数及其拔靴算法，发展了基于参数效率模型的能源效率与碳排放绩效评价方法，并利用考虑非期望产出的效率模型对我国宏观能效与环境绩效评价及碳排放分析开展了系列实证研究，研究成果已在《Energy Economics》等国内外重要学术期刊发表（接受）论文18篇。本项目借鉴吸收碳排放分析与考虑非期望产出效率模型领域研究的最新成果，发展基于效率模型的生产分解分析方法并用其研究我国碳排放增长的深层次驱动因素；构建合适的效率模型研究我国碳减排目标在不同地区及行业的责任分配，并结合地区及行业的差异性特征得出兼顾公平的碳减排责任分配修正方案；以经济效率最大化为基本目标研究不同地区及行业的动态减排路径，探讨效率与公平约束下我国二氧化碳减排的最优策略。以期推进效率模型与碳排放分析方法的研究进展，为我国科学、经济地实现国家碳减排目标提供决策支持和定量化依据。

二氧化碳减排责任的合理分担是实现我国碳排放控制目标的关键，而减排路径的优化则是制定积极有效碳减排政策的科学基础。项目基于效率分析视角对我国二氧化碳减排的责任与路径相关问题开展了系统研究，主要成果包括：（1）考虑生产技术的异质性发展了几个能源与碳排放率测度新模型，提出了能源拥挤理论假设，构建效率模型测度能源拥挤效应及考虑拥挤效应的全要素能源效率模型；（2）将传统的乘式生产分解分析方法拓展至加式分解，并综合考虑区域与部门在能源消费与碳排放方面的异质性，发展了一种新的生产分解分析技术用于更加精细地研究二氧化碳排放增长的内驱因素；（3）构建了系列效率模型研究我国碳排放总量在不同省区间的分配及最优排放路径，发现适度的总量控制并不会影响经济增长，且发达地区应早于欠发达地区实施碳减排。项目研究工作在Energy Economics、Ecological Economics、Energy Policy、Applied Energy等英文期刊发表论文18篇，在《中国工业经济》、《管理评论》等中文期刊发表论文4篇。以项目研究成果为支撑，项目主持人入选2016年国家杰青、江苏省333高层次人才工程（第二层次），受邀担任Energy Policy副编、Energy Efficiency编委，连续两年（2014、2015）列入爱思唯尔中国高被引学者榜单，获得系统科学与系统工程青年科技奖、教育部科学研究优秀成果奖（人文社科）等科研奖励。