差异化减排措施下二氧化碳边际减排成本研究——基于物质平衡原理

Estimating the marginal CO2 abatement costs is a scientific foundation for allocating carbon emission reduction responsibility in a reasonable way and the design of differentiated abatement policies, which play significant roles for achieving the state goal of carbon peak. There are various emission reduction measures varying among different producers, and the choice of emission reduction measures leads to different marginal abatement costs. Built upon the two observations, this project aims to integrate efficiency analysis, optimization method and economic analysis to conduct the following research. By incorporating production theory and material balance principle (MBP), we first derive marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission by considering different choices of emission reduction measures; We second examine the CO2 generation and abatement process, and propose an advanced specification for the technology with CO2 emissions. We third develop the approaches to estimating the marginal abatement costs of CO2 emissions under different emission reduction measures；By applying the approaches to provincial thermal power industry, we finally estimate the marginal CO2 abatement cost and the abatement potentials under different emission reduction measures, as well as identifying the abatement strategies for economically achieving the emissions reduction target. Based on the above research, we finally propose the policy recommendation for promoting carbon emission reduction in the thermal power industry. It is expected that the research proposed in this proposal helps to improve the methods for estimating marginal abatement costs and therefore make a contribution to the theory and methods of energy and climate change economics. On the other hand, we expect that the empirical research provides useful information for making differential abatement policy and measures.

二氧化碳边际减排成本的评估是碳减排责任合理分担及差别化减排政策设计的一个科学基础，后两者对经济体实现碳减排以及国家实现碳排放峰值目标意义重大。基于对生产者具有差异化的减排措施选择且不同选择下二氧化碳边际减排成本不同的认识，本项目集成效率分析、优化方法、经济学分析等多种方法工具，立足生产理论和物质平衡原理，研究差异化减排措施下二氧化碳边际减排成本的形成机理；探究二氧化碳生成与减排过程，改进考虑碳排放的生产技术刻画方法；继而发展采取减排技术措施与采取节能减排措施时的二氧化碳边际减排成本评估模型；结合电力行业数据，研究省区电力行业不同减排措施下的二氧化碳减排潜力与边际减排成本，识别成本最佳减排策略；进而从减排措施选择视角凝练有利于促进电力行业实现碳减排目标的政策建议。以期从理论上完善二氧化碳边际减排成本评估方法，丰富能源与气候变化经济学理论方法体系，并为差异化碳减排政策措施的制定提供决策依据。

边际减排成本评估是合理分配碳减排责任、科学制定碳减排政策的一个基础。项目围绕边际减排成本评估中的若干关键科学问题开展研究。首先，改进环境生产技术的刻画方法，基于能源与碳排放之间的弱可处置性建立了满足物质均衡原理的环境生产技术；其次，优化方向向量的选择方法，通过求解最小欧式距离来识别最优内生方向，建立了内生的边际减排成本测度模型，克服了方向向量选择的主观性；考虑到减排措施具有多样性，项目基于利润函数、排放函数、成本函数等对不同减排措施下的边际减排成本进行了推导，建立了考虑减排措施选择的二氧化碳边际减排成本评估方法。研究发现，忽视物质均衡原理易低估环境绩效；最优内生方向有别于文献中常见的外生方向；省区间优化路径存在差异，在碳排放不受管制时，大部分省区倾向于提高碳排放实现绩效提升，而在碳排放受到管制时，大部分省区倾向于减少碳排放或者增加期望产出；不同省区的最佳减排措施具有差异，对大部分省区而言，节能比优化能源结构面临着更高的边际减排成本；另外，边际减排成本随时间呈现下降趋势，在多数区域表现出空间差异。项目丰富了边际减排成本测度的理论和方法体系，为碳价制定及环境管制下减排措施的选择提供了决策支持。在基金项目的支持下，课题组在Energy Economics, Journal of Management Science and Engineering, Journal of Environmental Management等期刊发表学术论文3篇；在科学出版社出版专著1部。