全球化背景下我国温室气体排放责任认定与减排路径研究

There is growing attentions paid on global warming and pollution control issues. As the world largest energy consumer and the world largest greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitter, China is facing multiple pressures including international climate negotiation, GHGs reduction and air pollution control. This project will first focus on the emission responsibility issue mainly against the emissions embedded in the international trade. About half of the Chinese exports are accounted by processing trade, for which the domestic value-added per unit of exports is generally lower than that of ordinary trade. The current studies however fail to capture the differences between processing trade and ordinary trade, therefore overestimate the economic benefits which China received from trade and the emission responsibility which China is responsible for international trade. In addition, most of the trade in China is led by foreign invested enterprises (FIEs), for which the economic profits often flow back to the host developed countries. We will take these influences into account and re-measure the emission responsibility of China, to help with the "common but differentiated responsibilities" clarifications in the climate negotiations. Then considering the air pollution control shares high correlation with GHG reduction, we will target the reductions of both GHG and air pollutions of China. Based on the analysis of the pattern of global emissions (including GHG and air pollutions) and the decomposition of the determinants behind the changes and differences among China and the other countries, we will present a pollution emission simulation model, to simulate the dual effects of related policies on the reductions of both GHG and air pollution emissions. Based on these simulations, a basket of policies such as the improvement of energy use efficiency, the updating of industrial and trade structure and pollutions control will be presented.

在气候变化与污染防治已上升为世界新经济格局构建和国际游戏规则的背景下，作为全球第一大能源消费国和污染排放国，我国面临着国际气候谈判、温室气体排放控制及大气污染防治的多重压力。本项目首先将对目前国际上的减排责任制度进行梳理，充分考虑我国加工贸易比重较高且增加值含量较低的特点,避免已有研究中对中国通过加工贸易所获得利益的过高估计，并讨论外资企业对我国污染排放的影响，科学界定我国应承担的减排责任；然后结合我国温室气体减排和大气污染防治的双重压力，对影响我国主要污染物（包括温室气体和大气污染物）排放的驱动因素进行多维对比，结合情景分析和数值仿真方法，测算不同减排路径下的温室气体和大气污染物协同减排潜力；在此基础上研究应如何通过提高能源使用效率、调整产业、贸易和能源消费结构以及改善末端污染治理等一系列手段，实现协同减排目标，为相关政策的制定提供科学参考。

在气候变化已上升为世界新经济格局构建和国际游戏规则的背景下，作为全球第一大能源消费国和温室气体排放国，我国面临着国际气候谈判、温室气体排放控制及大气污染防治的多重压力。本项目从国际和国内两个角度着手，一方面讨论国际气候谈判中应如何界定我国的责任；另一方面研究如何科学决策，实现我国的减排目标。对外谈判方面，本项目首先充分考虑我国加工贸易增加值含量较低且比重较高的特点，为避免已有研究中对中国通过加工贸易所获得利益的过高估计，编制了区分加工贸易的国家间投入产出表及相应的区分国家、部门和贸易方式的温室气体排放卫星账户，并基于该数据库对目前国际上的温室气体减排责任制度进行梳理；其次编制了区分贸易方式和贸易方式和企业类型的我国环境投入产出表，讨论跨国公司行为对排放责任认定的影响，由此科学界定了我国应承担的减排责任。对内政策制定方面，本项目对全球不同温室气体排放格局及其变化的驱动因素进行了分解，从时间和空间维度讨论我国与全球其他经济体的差异，并对影响我国主要温室气体排放的驱动因素进行多维对比，结合情景分析和数值仿真方法，测算不同减排路径下的温室气体减排潜力；在此基础上研究了应如何通过提高能源使用效率、调整产业、贸易和能源消费结构以及改善末端污染治理等一系列手段，实现协同减排目标，为相关政策的制定提供科学参考。项目资助期间，项目组共计发表SSCI/SCI期刊论文17篇（其中一区论文13篇），中文权威期刊论文3篇，专著1本。