间歇性功率流的主动性渐进调控理论研究

Currently the variable output of large-scale intermittent power generation presents many integration problems, especially at accommodation and the challenges to traditional control and dispatching mode. The essence is that the inherent regularity of intermittent power generation has not been explored effectively, then the intermittency can not be complementary with power balance, and the conventional control and dispatching modes are becoming increasingly hard under the situation of rising penetration. According to this, the research is carried out about intermittent power generation with novel perspective on its self controllability mining, aiming to analyse its inherent regularity hierarchically, and decrease the influence on dispatching decision from prediction error, then accelerate its incorporation into current control and dispatching mode, at last achieve multi-time level active control and dispatching. For this purpose, based on singularity definition and identification, singularity decomposition model for feature analysis can be built; making adapting to current control and dispatching mode being a precondition, singularity correction modeling considering dispatching demand will be set up; finally multi-time level active and progressive mode based control and dispatching theory is proposed. The research puts forward ideas about intermittent power generation feature mining from its self controllability, and it will be of great benefit to accommodation and dispatching ability promotion of intermittent power generation, also will be of significant theoretical and practical value to the control and dispatching of large-scale grid-connected intermittent power generation.

目前大规模间歇性电源并网不仅消纳困难，而且对传统确定性电网调控带来严峻挑战，其实质是间歇性规律未有效把握，致使功率变化与能量平衡来不及协调互补，使穿透率持续攀升情况下的常规调控愈发困难。针对上述问题，本项目拟从发掘间歇性电源自身可控性规律的角度着手，分层分区剖析其波动的内在规律，降低预测水平对调度决策的影响，推动其分步渐进参与当前调控系统，实现适合多时间层次的主动性调控。为此，本项目以奇异功率曲线界定与辨识为基础，构建间歇性电源的功率有效域分解模型；以适应当前电网调控为前提，研究适合调度需求的功率有效域奇异性校正方法；进而提出多时间层次间歇性功率流的主动性渐进调控理论。本项目从挖掘间歇性电源自身可控性的角度提出研究思路，对提升电网对间歇性电源的接纳及调控能力具有极大帮助，为促进间歇性电源调控问题的解决提供一种全新的思路，对大规模间歇性电源并网后的电网调控具有重要的理论意义与应用价值。

伴随化石能源的不断枯竭，风能、太阳能等间歇性、可再生性清洁能源正在持续的、大量的涌入电网，由此使得大规模间歇性能源的消纳问题亟待解决。同时，传统的确定性调控方式与难以满足间歇性电源的不确定性增量的要求，现有电网调控面临严峻的威胁与挑战。为此，本项目以探索当前电网应对间歇性发电的有效运行模式出发，从风电特性解析以及风储系统的联合优化运行的角度，探讨削弱间歇性电源发电波动性的有效方法。针对上述目标，本项目构建了以风储系统规划和控制为核心的研究内容和框架，具体研究内容包括风储系统的优化控制、风储系统的容量优化配置以及包含风储系统的微电网的经济优化运行研究。本项目研究过程中的重要成果包括：发表项目直接相关期刊论文十二篇，其中SCI检索论文三篇，在国内顶级EI检索期刊发表论文九篇，其中三篇SCI论文和六篇EI期刊论文中，项目负责人均为第一作者或者通讯作者。本项目相关研究数据表明：在风光发电渗透率提升背景下，电网运行的各项指标稳定调控难度将逐渐增大。风光储系统的有效联合运行可以大幅降低间歇性电源对电网调控的影响，并一定程度上提升新能源发电消纳能力。综合本项目研究进程，其科学意义在于重点探讨了储能系统在应对新能源发电不确定的有效性和可行性，并有针对性的在风储系统的优化运行模式、风储系统的容量规划方法以及包含风储系统的电网优化经济调度等方面展开深入探讨，为当前电网应对渗透率逐渐提升的新能源发电提供了重要理论参考。