不确定条件下鄱阳湖流域土地-产业结构优化研究——基于生态环境约束

The land-industry system of a watershed has the characters of uncertainty and complexity. We will propose a set of multi-objective/multi-level uncertain models and a decision management information system for structure optimization of land-industry system of Poyang lake watershed based on the characters of the watershed. These models are based on methods of interval models, stochastic analysis, fuzzy mathematics and GIS technology. Furthermore, these models will consider various eco-environment constraints. The decision management information system is based on the technology of GIS. The detail study contents include: (1) Identify and analyze various uncertain factors and their complicated interactive relationship of land-industry system of Poyang lake watershed; propose a set of multi-objective, multi-stage, multi-scenario optimal models based on fuzzy, stochastic, interval models, these models can full consider various uncertainties with respect to quantification, time and space; (2) Propose a decision management information system for Poyang lake watershed based on system theory, multi-criteria decision analysis of fuzzy theory, after model analysis method of intelligent expert knowledge system and GIS technology. The purpose of this project is to establish a method system for integrated multi-objective, multi-stage, multi-scenario, dynamic, uncertain management of land-industry system of Poyang lake watershed based on mathematical models and decision management information system. This project will promote the sustainable development of social economy and eco-environment in Poyang lake watershed.

流域土地-产业系统具有不确定性和复杂性。项目拟通过区间模型、随机分析、模糊数学、GIS等方法，综合考虑生态环境约束，建立一套适合流域系统特点的不确定条件下多目标多层次流域土地-产业结构优化模型和决策管理信息系统并应用于鄱阳湖流域。具体研究内容包括：（1）深入辨识、分析鄱阳湖流域土地-产业系统种种不确定性因子以及它们之间的复杂互动响应关系，开发一套基于模糊、随机和区间模型的多目标多阶段多情景的最优化方法体系，该方法体系可以有效地在计量、时间、空间上充分考虑双重或多重不确定因素；（2）基于系统论和模糊理论的多判据决策分析与智能专家知识系统的后模型分析方法以及GIS技术，开发鄱阳湖流域土地-产业结构优化决策管理信息系统。项目旨在通过数学模型和决策管理信息系统，建立一套多目标、动态、多阶段、多情景、不确定性条件下的一体化鄱阳湖流域土地-产业管理体系，促进鄱阳湖流域经济社会生态环境可持续发展。

文献综述表明，基于不确定数学模型和生态环境约束的土地利用优化配置模型和产业结构优化模型具有广泛的研究前景。本项目提出多个尺度（包括国家尺度、流域尺度和城市尺度）的不确定条件下土地利用优化配置模型和产业结构优化模型。这些模型在计算方便性、不确定性表达和优化分析方面具有明显的优点。除此之外，相比于传统的此类模型，本项目提出的模型考虑了更多的经济、社会、生态、环境和技术因素，因此可以更好的支持可持续发展决策分析。将提出的模型应用于中国、鄱阳湖流域、南四湖流域、南京、武汉、杭州等不同尺度的实例，得到了一系列土地利用优化模式和产业结构优化模式。结果表明，模型能够定量地反映经济发展与生态环境保护之间的折中关系，从而可以为土地利用政策分析、产业结构优化升级提供良好的决策支持。