中国能源相关甲烷排放清单开发及多尺度应用研究

Methane is the second largest greenhouse gas in the world. China is the world's largest methane emitter (55.915 Mt in 2012), and its methane emissions from energy activities account for nearly half of the national total methane emissions. This research proposal aims to perform the investigation, statistic and modeling of solid fuel, oil & gas system and fossil fuel combustion-related basic data, examine and select the estimation methods and emissions factors at higher levels, and then estimate China’s time-series energy-related methane emissions systematically. Moreover, this research will integrate and optimize global methane emission data-sets, and identify the global and national methane emission characteristics such as the spatial patterns and the roles of methane in greenhouse gas emission inventories. By combing the multi-regional input-output models with spatial methane emission inventories from economic sectors, multi-regional environmental extended input-output models will be built. By using the complex network analysis, structural path analysis and structural decomposition analysis, the main paths of virtual methane emission transfers from final consumption, inter-regional supply chains to economic sectors can be traced. The map of inter-regional virtual transfer of methane emissions via primary energy and commodity trade networks will be depicted. The impact and effect of final consumption demands on global, national and regional methane emission patterns can be revealed. After building the multi-scale database of embodied methane emissions, consumption-based emission statistics and responsibility allocation system will be built. The mitigation potentials and options of direct or embodied methane emissions in production sectors, supply chains and final consumption will be explored. Corresponding policy-making implications such as specific targets and concrete action plans for China’s methane emission mitigation will be addressed in depth, which will greatly contribute to the control of national, regional and sectoral methane emissions and the achievement of comprehensive greenhouse gas emission mitigation.

甲烷是全球第二大温室气体，我国是最大的甲烷排放国，2012年为5591.5万吨，其中接近一半源自能源活动。本项目拟开展我国固体燃料、油气系统、燃料燃烧相关活动水平数据挖掘、统计与建模，校验优选较高层级的计算方法与排放因子，系统测算能源活动时间序列甲烷排放，优化集成全球及我国甲烷排放数据集，辨识多类型甲烷排放空间分布格局与清单特征；链接多区域投入产出模型与甲烷排放清单和经济活动，构建区域间环境拓展投入产出模型，结合复杂网络分析、结构路径分析与结构分解分析等技术方法，追溯从最终消费-能源和商品贸易网络-部门排放源的供应链甲烷虚拟传输路径，绘制空间化排放转移溢出地图，探究最终需求对全球及我国甲烷排放时空格局的诱发机制；构建多尺度体现甲烷排放数据库和责任分配体系，明确生产端、供应链和消费端甲烷减排潜力与路径，提出我国甲烷减排目标与具体行动方案，服务于国家、地方和部门的甲烷排放控制，实现全面减排。

项目的背景：甲烷是第二大温室气体，减少甲烷排放是重要的全球性挑战。我国是全球最大的人为源甲烷排放国，能源活动相关甲烷排放是主要的排放源。探究中国能源相关甲烷排放清单并实现多尺度清单应用，对于理解我国及全球人为源甲烷排放成因，助力实现我国能源相关甲烷排放控制与全面温室气体减排，具有重要研究价值。.主要研究内容：总结国内外清单编制经验与最新研究进展，系统测算我国煤炭开采、油气系统泄漏等能源活动的甲烷排放；在此基础上，拓展清单研究与应用范围，归纳集成全球及我国甲烷排放清单数据集；将标准多区域投入产出模型与空间化的甲烷排放和经济活动连接起来，探究最终消费需求和贸易活动对全球和我国甲烷排放格局的影响与作用机制。.重要结果、关键数据及其科学意义：全面衡量了我国煤炭开采和油气系统泄漏相关甲烷排放的基本格局、清单地位及其诱发机制，追溯了从最终消费到供应链再到排放部门的多尺度虚拟甲烷传输路径，绘制出全球空间化甲烷排放时空转移与溢出地图，构建出多尺度体现甲烷排放清单数据库，从全球范围以及消费的角度解释人为源甲烷排放成因，并将研究范围与方法应用拓展到多尺度资源能源与其他排放。代表性研究结果：（1）发现近40年来中国煤炭开采甲烷排放的演变趋势以及目前认识的局限性，发现2010-2019年随着煤炭产量回升，中国煤炭开采甲烷排放在持续减少；（2）发现中国石油和天然气系统的甲烷排放结果仍不清晰的原因，阐明了中国油气行业甲烷逃逸排放及其时空特征，并论述了我国天然气行业甲烷排放控制及相关科学问题；（3）分析了我国供应链中隐含非二氧化碳温室气体排放传导路径、隐含水和温室气体耦合关系以及制造业经济对能源相关温室气体排放的影响以及甲烷排放增长的社会经济驱动因素；（4）量化了基于不同数据库的全球时间序列甲烷足迹，揭示了全球贸易隐含甲烷排放的时空演变规律。研究结果将为分析我国能源部门甲烷减排潜力，制定国家层面甲烷减排行动计划，探索以消费为基础的排放统计和责任分配体系，提供决策依据。