供应中断下基于演化信息驱动的多主体动态应急策略研究

Due to globalization and "Internet +" environment, supply chain system has more complex network characteristics. Suppliers, manufacturers, retailers, customers, and other subjects show complicated multi-directional interactions and evolutions on information behaviors, and the information chain in complex supply chain system is further developed into the network information ecological chain, which leads to gradually increase the risk of supply disruptions and its effect. The traditional pure proactive or reactive strategies have been difficult to adapt to the rapid development of electronic commerce and "Internet +". Therefore, based on the theme of network information ecological chain, information-driven, and dynamic strategy of multi-agent, we try to describe, analyze, and predict the whole process of the multi-agent information behavior co-evolution. Then, a measure model of disruption impact via evolutionary information driven is formulated. Furthermore, from the perspective of different agents, we study the dynamic strategies for competitive and non-competitive market respectively, with the interaction of multi-agent strategic behavior in consideration. Lastly, the dynamic strategies for mitigating different types of disruptions, under the markets with different competition intensity, are fully analyzed. The project not only offers a decision method for dynamically managing disruptions under "Internet +" environment, but also provides practical suggestions for multiple agents in a multi-echelon supply chain system to cope with supply disruption effectively.

供应链的全球化及“互联网+”环境使供应链系统呈现更复杂的网络特征，供应商、制造商、零售商、顾客等多个主体之间呈现多向式信息行为交互及演化，复杂供应链系统的信息链进一步发展成网络信息生态链，导致供应中断的风险及中断影响逐步加剧。传统单纯的中断预防或应急措施已难以适应“互联网+”及电子商务的迅速发展。因此，本项目遵循网络信息生态链、演化信息驱动、多主体动态策略的主线，对多主体信息行为协同演化过程进行详细刻画、分析、可视化预测等研究；建立基于演化信息驱动的中断损失动态测度模型；从各主体角度出发，进一步综合考虑多主体间策略行为交互，构建非竞争市场、竞争市场供应中断的动态应急管理策略方案，并全面分析不同中断类别及市场竞争程度情形下基于演化信息驱动的动态应急策略。本项目不仅在理论上，提出一种适用于“互联网+”环境下供应中断的动态管理决策方法，而且为多级供应链系统中各主体应对供应中断提供实际的指导方案。

供应链的全球化及“互联网+”环境使供应链系统呈现更复杂的网络特征，供应商、制造商、零售商、顾客等多个主体之间呈现多向式信息行为交互及演化，复杂供应链系统的信息链进一步发展成网络信息生态链，导致供应中断的风险及中断影响逐步加剧。因此，本项目重点研究了以下几方面的内容：供应中断下多主体动态应急策略的研究、供应链中信息演化与信息披露机制的研究、国际供应链风险管理问题的研究、电子商务环境下供应链风险管理问题的研究。通过研究，我们给出了供应链中的信息演化规律和信息披露机制，并根据供应中断的特点，结合顾客行为，提出了多种动态混合策略应对供应链中断带来的冲击。在全球化和信息化的冲击下，供应链风险呈现新的特点，为此，我们给出了国际供应链和多渠道供应链的渠道选择和合作策略。最后，本项目在可持续供应链和服务供应链领域进行了有益的探索，进一步扩大成果的应用范围。在项目执行期内，已发表学术论文41篇，其中，SCI或SSCI检索论文32篇，EI检索论文5篇，在国家自然科学基金委管理学部重点期刊上发表2篇；申请发明专利10项，授权软件著作权5项，顺利完成了预期目标，并为今后的研究指明了方向。通过本项目的研究，进一步完善了我国在供应链风险管理领域的研究成果，尤其在当前疫情和国际竞争导致供应链中断加剧的现实情形下，本项目的研究成果可以有效应对供应链中断风险，降低供应链中断风险对我国经济和社会带来的冲击。