供需不确定情形下折损产品供应链动态协调策略研究

In reality, most products are deteriorating items. At the same time, the supply and demand uncertainty also causes a great deal of impact on the normal operation of the supply chain. Therefore, it is a very important and realistic problem to consider the deterioration rate how to affect supply chain coordination in the supply and demand uncertain environment. We will introduce the dynamic production-inventory models for deteriorating items into supply chain coordination, and further put forward some innovative theory of supply chain coordination for deteriorating items under supply and demand uncertainty. Specific contents include: establish supply chain contract models for deteriorating items under stochastic supply and demand; through combining the discrete system of supply and demand disruption with continuous system of deterioration, the hybrid dynamic supply chain models are created, and dynamic coordination and control strategies are given based on the theoretical models; considering that product price can affect supply and demand and preservation technology investment can control deterioration rate, the project will analyze the impact of price and preservation technology investment on coordination, and realize coordination of complex supply chain; since agricultural products are typical deteriorating items and have the characteristics of supply and demand uncertainty, finally, the agricultural supply chain will be chosen to do the empirical analysis. Through the project, we hope to make contributions to the research in the field of supply chain coordination and bring economic and social benefits for China.

在现实的市场环境下，多数产品存在着一定的折损现象，同时，供需不确定也对供应链的正常运行造成极大的影响。因此，在供需不确定环境下考虑产品的折损率对供应链协调的影响是一个非常重要和现实的问题。本项目通过把动态的折损产品生产库存理论引入到供应链协调理论中，提出具有自主创新性的供需不确定下的折损产品供应链协调理论。具体内容包括：在供需具有随机不确定环境下建立折损产品供应链契约理论模型；把离散的供需突变系统与连续的折损系统相结合，建立混杂动态供应链系统模型，并依据理论模型给出动态协调和控制策略；考虑到价格将会影响供需情况，保护技术投资可以控制产品折损率，本项目将分析价格和保护技术投资对供应链协调的影响，实现复杂供应链的协调；农产品是典型的折损产品，并具有供需不确定的特点，最后结合农产品供应链来进行实证分析。力争通过本项目的研究，进一步完善我国在供应链协调领域的研究成果，并带来一定的经济和社会效益。

供需不确定和产品折损特性极大影响了供应链的运行效率，本项目正是在这两个影响因素的环境下研究了供应链的协调问题。重点研究了供需双重不确定情形下的供应链协调问题；折损产品生产库存系统的协调问题；供给中断情形下的动态应对策略问题；动态复杂供应链系统的建模问题；多渠道供应链的渠道选择和协调问题等等。通过本项目的研究，我们设计了两个重要的契约模式实现了供需双重不确定情形下的供应链协调，找到了动态应对策略来降低供应中断对生产的影响，并实现了复杂动态折损产品的供应链协调，同时，给出了电子商务环境下的渠道选择策略和协调方法等。在项目执行期内，已发表学术论文21篇，其中，SCI或SSCI检索论文10篇，EI检索论文7篇，顺利完成了预期目标，并为今后的研究指明了方向。通过本项目的研究，进一步完善我国在供应链协调领域的研究成果，并带来一定的经济和社会效益。