营业中断保险视角下的易逝品供应链中断风险转移策略研究

In view of the fact that the development of business interruption insurance (BI insurance) in China is seriously lagging behind and the risk management of the perishable products’ supply chain needs to be improved, this project tries to break through the limitations of the previous research that is limited to the perspective of enterprise internal operation, and intends to study the risk transfer strategy of the perishable products’ supply chain disruption from the perspective of BI insurance and enterprise internal operation. Firstly, the project attempts to explore the potential disruption risk point in perishable products’ supply chain, construct a model to identify the disruption risk in the supply chain, conduct scenario analysis on how the key influencing factors affect the recovery of operational capabilities, and build an emergency management paradigm. Further, attempts are made to classify the disruption risk losses from the perspective of BI insurance, and subsequently construct a model to measure them. Finally, the project endeavors to construct a decision group of models for BI insurance purchasing and operational management decision so as to transfer disruption risk. In addition, the project expects to investigate the purchase value of business interruption insurance; study the linkage mechanism and combinatorial strategy for BI insurance purchase decision and operation management strategies such as stock holding, emergency procurement, reserve production, and options introduction; compare the effects of different combination strategies on the interruption risk transfer; and explore the optimal strategy selection under different decision-making targets. The project aims to provide theoretical and methodical support for disruption risk management of perishable products’ supply chain.

针对我国营业中断保险(Business Interruption Insurance,BI保险)市场发展严重滞后和易逝品供应链风险管控能力亟待提升的现实国情，本项目力图突破前期研究囿于企业内部运营视角的局限性，从BI保险和企业内部运营双视角研究易逝品供应链中断风险转移策略问题。首先，探寻易逝品供应链潜在中断风险点，构建易逝品供应链中断风险识别模型，就中断风险关键影响因素如何影响运营能力恢复效果进行情景分析，构建应急管理范式；然后，从BI保险视角对中断风险损失进行分类，构建中断风险损失测度模型；最后，构建BI保险购买和运营管理决策模型群，探讨BI保险购买价值，探析BI保险购买决策与库存持有、应急采购、后备生产、期权引入等运营管理决策之间的联动机制与组合策略，比较不同组合策略的中断风险转移效果，探寻不同决策目标下的最优策略选择，为易逝品供应链中断风险管理提供理论与方法支持。

本项目针对我国营业中断保险（BI保险）市场发展严重滞后和易逝品供应链风险管控能力亟待提升的现实国情，围绕易逝品供应链中断风险的识别、分类、损失测度及转移策略展开研究。.项目构建了易逝品供应链中断风险识别框架和识别模型，并将易逝品供应链中断风险损失界定为BI保险可赔付损失和BI保险不可赔付损失并对其进行了测度；接着，项目研究了由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的二级供应链系统，在制造商运营中断环境下，对不投保、制造商投保、零售商投保及供应链整体投保这四种情况进行模型构建，分析不同购买主体下营业中断保险的购买价值及购买决策条件，并对比分析其对制造商、零售商及供应链整体的影响过程；.然后，假设保费率内生，从购买主体和承保主体双视角探讨BI保险购买策略的价值实现过程，探寻其对参与主体的影响和作用，对运营中断风险下制造商购买策略、零售商购买策略、联合购买策略和不购买策略等四种情景进行对比分析，探寻BI保险购买策略边界和风险转移效果，分析BI保险购买策略的影响和作用机理；分析不同购买情景下保险公司的BI保险定价决策。.再接着，引入中断惩罚系数，就制造商运营中断风险下不投保决策、制造商投保决策、零售商投保决策和合作投保决策等四种策略选择进行对比分析，探寻营业中断险投保决策的边界、价值及影响路径。.最后，结合疫情营业中断险，从多投保主体视角，研究政府直接补贴模式及间接补贴模式下的企业投保选择问题，为供应链协同管控中断风险提供决策支持。.项目研究不仅为供应链中断风险理论做出了贡献，对企业BI保险购买决策及中断风险转移方案具有指导和实用价值，对保险公司的产品研发及定价决策有重要的借鉴意义，同时关于保险补贴的相关研究为政府制定切实有效的政策提供有力的支持。