考虑突发事件情景演变的应急方案调整的决策方法研究

There exist extensive practical backgrounds in the alternative adjustment problem considering evolutions of emergency scenarios. It is a new research topic with great theoretical and practical significance that is needed to be solved in emergency management and decision science. It is also the key problem needed to be solved for implementing the “scenario-response” emergency management mode. In this project, we plan to conduct further research on the decision methods for alternative adjustment considering evolutions of emergency scenarios, on the basis of the fruitful research results concerning the methods for alternative selection in emergency response obtained in the research period of National Science Foundation for Young Scientists. The main research contents of this project include: the technology for constructing logic digraphs on the evolutions of emergency scenarios based on the analysis on related inducing events, the model for estimating probabilities of emergency scenarios based on the logic digraphs, the method for alternative adjustment judgment considering evolutions of emergency scenarios, and the method for generating response adjustment alternative considering evolutions of emergency scenarios. The aims of this project are to refine and describe the alternative adjustment problem with great theoretical and practical significance considering evolutions of emergency scenarios, to propose the decision methods for alternative adjustment considering evolutions of emergency scenarios systematically, and to achieve some high level research fruits.

考虑突发事件情景演变的应急方案调整问题具有大量的实际背景，是应急管理与决策科学领域迫切需要研究的具有理论意义和实际价值的新课题，也是实现“情景-应对”型应急管理模式需要解决的关键问题，具有前沿性和探索性。在青年基金项目针对突发事件应急方案择优方法开展了深入研究并取得了较为丰硕的研究成果的基础上，本项目拟针对考虑突发事件情景演变的应急方案调整的决策方法开展进一步深入、系统的研究。本项目的研究内容包括：基于相关诱发事件分析的突发事件情景演变有向逻辑图构建技术、基于有向逻辑图的突发事件情景概率的估计模型、考虑突发事件情景演变的应急方案调整的判定方法和考虑突发事件情景演变的应急调整方案的生成方法。本项目的研究目的在于：提炼并描述科学的、有理论意义与实际价值的考虑突发事件情景演变的应急方案调整的研究问题体系，提出考虑突发事件情景演变的应急方案调整的决策方法，取得具有一定影响的高水平研究成果。

本项目针对考虑突发事件情景演变的应急方案调整的决策方法开展研究,具有重要的理论意义和实际意义。通过四年的研究，取得了丰硕的研究成果，其主要体现在四个方面：进行了考虑突发事件情景演变的应急方案调整的决策方法的相关基础性研究；提出了基于相关诱发事件分析的突发事件情景概率估计方法；提出了考虑突发事件情景演变的应急方案调整决策方法；开展了相关方法的应用研究。通过本项目的研究，较好地完成了预期制定的研究计划，达到了预期研究目标，与已有同类研究成果相比，达到了先进水平。在本项目研究中，出版专著2部，发表学术论文共14篇，其中在国际重要期刊上发表论文10篇；培养硕士研究生4人（已毕业）。本项目研究工作的完成，对进一步发展和完善突发事件应急决策分析的理论与方法做出了贡献。