优先路网中公交车辆换道行为对通行能力影响研究

Under the influence of traffic infrastructure, incident and driving behavior, lane-changing process occurs frequently in bus priority network, and affects the practical capacity of bus priority network. But the current capacity analysis method takes less consider on impact of a lane change, which will decrease the accuracy of the method. Therefore, it is particularly important to research on the bus priority network capacity under the influence of lane-changing. According to analyze the characteristics of bus lane-changing in priority network, lane-changing prone area and factors are determined. The interaction mechanism between intersection and bus stop under fixed lane-changing process is studied, capacity effect model is proposed under fixed lane-changing process. The "disturbance" process which is caused by coincidental factor such as traffic incident and driving behavior is studied, bus priority network capacity reliability under the influence of probabilistic lane-changing is analyzed, bus priority network is classified on the probability and weight of coincidental factor, capacity model of priority network is established based on probabilistic lane-changing. Simulation analysis and empirical verification are used to analyze the stability and accuracy of capacity model. The research will further improve the relevant theories of priority network transit capacity, and provide some reference for scientific decision to urban public transport management department.

在交通设施、交通事件、驾驶行为等多因素影响下，公交车辆在优先路网中换道行为频发，较大程度影响了路网实际通行能力。但目前的通行能力分析方法较少考虑车辆换道的影响，致使分析结果准确性不高。因此，需要加强研究优先路网中公交车辆换道行为对通行能力的影响。本课题通过分析优先路网中公交车辆换道行为特征，确定车辆换道易发区域和换道行为影响因素；研究固定换道行为作用下停靠站与交叉口相互制约机制，构建固定换道行为对通行能力的影响模型；研究交通事件、驾驶行为等偶发因素对优先路网交通波产生的“扰动”过程，分析概率换道行为对优先路网通行能力可靠度的影响，从偶发事件发生概率及影响权重的角度对优先路网进行分级，并构建概率换道行为对优先路网通行能力的分级影响模型；综合利用仿真分析与实证校核手段验证模型稳定性和准确性。研究成果将进一步完善优先路网公交通行能力相关理论，并为城市公交管理部门的科学决策提供参考。

在交通设施、交通事件、驾驶行为等多因素影响下，公交车辆在优先路网中换道行为频发，造成不同程度的通行延误、显著降低公交运行准点率、持续增加公交车辆通行时间脆弱性程度，从而较大程度影响了路网实际通行效率。但目前的通行能力分析方法较少考虑车辆换道的影响，致使分析结果准确性不高。因此，需要加强研究优先路网中公交车辆换道行为对通行能力的影响。本课题借助无人机航拍数据分析优先路网中公交车辆换道行为，借助仿真分析手段研究换道易发区域换道行为及其影响特征，确定车辆换道易发区域和换道行为影响因素；通过研究固定换道行为作用下停靠站与交叉口相互制约机制，分析公交车辆换道过程对后续车辆通行受阻程度的影响，量化通行受阻增加的额外通行时间，借助等效流量分析方法构建固定换道行为作用下的道路通行能力折减模型；通过研究换道决策过程，分析概率换道行为对优先路网通行能力可靠度的影响，构建了基于元胞自动机的换道行为发生概率模型，进而研究偶发“扰动”影响下概率换道行为对通行能力的影响，综合利用仿真分析与实证校核手段验证模型稳定性和准确性；利用VISSIM软件搭建公交优先路网仿真环境，借助实测数据分析换道行为对交通运行特征参数的影响，在此基础上研究提升改路网通行效率的控制策略。研究成果将进一步完善优先路网公交通行能力相关理论、并为智能网联环境下的城市公交运行特征分析提供基础，同时还将为城市路网公交运营管理水平的提升与公交管理部门的科学决策提供参考。