基于曲面拟合方法的电力系统节点动态频率响应特性识别与预测研究

Based on the analysis of dynamic change process influencing factors on power system nodal frequency and its response characteristics, it is mentioned that the identification and prediction method of nodal dynamic frequency response characteristic. The state space curved surface of dynamic frequency response characteristic is structured by the curved surface fitting method and data of dynamic frequency changes with power system operation mode and power disturb state, at the same time the curved surface could be interpolated and corrected with power system real measured parameters, then the analytic expression of continuous curved surface can be obtained and the changing trend of nodal dynamic frequency response characteristic can be predict by the reverse solving method. It could be used for the analysis of power system transient frequency stability and other emergency control method based on power-frequency response characteristics that the identification and prediction method with curved surface fitting of nodal dynamic frequency response characteristic.

本课题在分析电力系统节点频率动态变化过程及其响应特性的影响因素基础上，提出节点动态频率响应的识别与预测方法，通过对电网仿真模型中对变动的运行方式及扰动状态下的节点动态频率变化及其频率响应特性进行采样，并采用曲面拟合方法将采样点拟合为状态空间曲面，同时采用系统实测参量对曲面进行插值和修正，得到连续曲面的解析表达式，并通过曲面反求方法预测和分析节点动态频率响应特性变化趋势。基于曲面拟合的节点频率动态响应特性特性识别和预测结果可以用于系统暂态频率稳定性分析及其他基于功率/频率响应特性的紧急控制措施当中。

研究计及初始运行方式及故障节点等效电气距离的多变量节点动态频率响应特性定义、概念及影响因素，进行数学建模；设计实验方案并在IEEE典型模型及大区电网仿真模型中进行仿真实验，研究采用节点动态频率响应特性仿真采样数据进行特性曲面拟合的理论及实用方法；研究基于Bezier曲线曲面、B样条曲线曲面及其改进的拟合方法，并研究基于实测数据对曲面进行修正校核以及计算误差比较方法，进行编程实现并应用于节点动态频率响应特性曲面的拟合和预测；在对节点动态频率响应特性及曲面拟合方法进行深入研究的基础上，结合频率特性分析及电压稳定指标和暂态能量函数指标，提出了系统交换容量极限计算方法，及结合SVC控制器特性的系统稳定性控制方法；同时基于频率特性的分析，提出了系统元件重要性评估方法和系统生存性评估方法，进一步应用于电力系统核心骨干网架构建与差异化规划当中。