跨产品生命周期的运营决策优化

As the technology advances and global competition strengthening, the product life cycle is becoming shorter. The enterprises face the product rollover problem between new generations and old generations of products more frequently. During the crossover process, the customer's choice involves comparing old and new products, thus are more complicated. The production and sales decisions involve control of multiple product life cycles and trade-offs between new and old products, hence are more challenging. This research project will focus on the characteristics of supply and demand during rollover process, and derive the market demand function based on empirical evidences of utility change from existing customers and new customers. At the same time, we calculate the production cost considering multiple sources of uncertainties, and optimize the dynamic production and sales strategies which include decisions on quantity, price, quality and service support. The derived structural properties are used to formulate simple and reliable decision guides. The resulting optimized models are also used to compare the profits as well as other performance indicators under single-product rollover and dual-product rollover strategies under different scenarios. We also consider the potential social benefit for product rollover, and provide theoretic support for government policy makers using multi-objective optimization theory.

随着技术进步和全球竞争加剧，产品生命周期呈逐渐缩短的趋势，企业经营管理中越来越多地涉及老一代产品的退出与新一代产品的推广。在新老产品的生命周期交替中，客户的选择行为涉及新老产品的取舍，更加复杂；企业的生产、销售涉及多个生命周期的控制和新老产品的平衡，面临着更多的挑战。本项目将抓住跨产品生命周期阶段需求与供给的特点，在细致分析存量客户和增量客户效用变化的基础上，根据实证证据推导市场需求函数；同时紧扣多种不确定因素计算供给成本，从短期和长期的不同视角出发，分析与优化包含产量、价格、质量、服务支持等决策在内的动态生产与销售策略，得出最优策略的结构性质和简便可靠的决策指导规则。优化的结果将用于比较分析替代式更新与并存式更新两种跨产品生命周期运营策略的适用条件和多项经营指标的表现。研究还结合产品更新可能产生的社会效益，运用多目标优化的方法为相关的支持政策提供理论依据。

在企业的长期经营中，新老产品的生命周期交替对企业的利润、累计碳排放等短期和长期经营目标产生重大影响，而传统的管理视角大都着眼于产品生命周期内运营，有待进一步扩展完善。本研究对存量客户和增量客户效用及需求建立理论模型，在此基础上优化垄断企业的定价、生产及其他相关管理决策，考察利润、销量以及碳排放等经营指标变化情况，随后分析寡头竞争以及供应链协作中的跨产品生命周期相关管理问题。.研究结论表明，垄断企业跨产品生命周期定价策略与市场饱和度紧密相关，存在两个饱和度阈值，分别对应于不同的市场策略。当考虑碳排放约束时，研究分析得出提升碳排放的成本并不一定导致企业采用低排放的方式生产，提出一个碳税和免费排放额度相结合的减排政策，能够减小低效率高排放情形出现的可能性。寡头之间考虑以旧换新等跨生命周期经营策略存在稳态均衡，会加剧企业之间的竞争激烈程度，因而降低利润，形成竞争的“囚徒困境”。对于考虑碳排放的跨周期运营的供应链而言，在供应链上下游企业之间合理分配排放碳排放额度能够有效地控制总成本。集权供应链相比分权供应链平均碳排放更低，但碳排放总量更高；分权供应链中上游企业倾向于更多地减排；减排率决策在供应链伙伴之间具有正向促进作用；可以通过免费排放额度的调整实现对供应链企业减排决策的部分调整。.研究成果对于企业在较长期的计划范围内更好地管理定价、生产等决策，优化利润并控制排放提供了理论基础，有利于提高供应链效率，提升社会福利，并降低碳排放等长期负外部性的影响，也能够为政府部门出台相应的管理措施和引导政策时提供参考。.