基于情景模拟与兵棋推演的城市暴雨内涝灾害居民应急避难研究

The height of the city's population and wealth, high, the rainstorm waterlogging disaster losses is huge .City is the gathering area of population and wealth, so urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster loss is huge. therefore, research on urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster emergency management is great significance for city sustainable development and social harmony and stability . Demonstration zone of the research is daoli district of Harbin, the research comprehensive "3 s" technology, scene simulation, war game deduction and other methods . By analyzing the mechanism of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster by extraction of waterlogging disaster factor, extract key parameter factor s of waterlogging disaster model, realize the war game map combined with waterlogging numerical simulation ,repeat waterlogging disaster scene, build the waterlogging disaster situation of residents of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster emergency shelter war game model of the deduction. Using ArcEngine and programming technology, make the inhabitants of emergency shelter war game deductive process visualization, build urban residents rainstorm waterlogging disaster emergency evacuation drill visualization and intelligent platform, deduce the process of urban emergency shelter under waterlogging disaster scene, provide the basis of urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster early warning, emergency rescue and emergency shelter for residents.

城市是人口和财富的高度集中区，其发生暴雨内涝灾害造成的损失是巨大的。因此，开展城市暴雨内涝灾害应急管理研究对于城市可持续发展及社会和谐稳定具有重要意义。本课题以哈尔滨市道里区为研究示范区，综合“3S”技术、情景模拟、兵棋推演等方法。通过分析城市暴雨内涝灾害成灾机理，提取内涝灾害模型中的关键参数因子，实现兵棋地图与内涝数值模拟相结合，重现内涝灾害情景，构建内涝灾害情景下的城市暴雨内涝灾害居民应急避难兵棋推演模型。利用ArcEngine和编程技术，将居民应急避难兵棋推演过程可视化，建立城市暴雨内涝灾害居民应急避难演练可视化与智能化平台，进行内涝灾害情景下的城市居民应急避难过程推演，为城市暴雨内涝灾害预警、应急救助和居民应急避难等提供依据。

针对城市内涝灾害居民应急避难问题，以哈尔滨市老城区（道里区）为研究区，以城市暴雨内涝灾害为研究对象，通过综合兵棋理论和数值模拟模型，研究城市暴雨内涝灾害模型和居民应急避难兵棋推演模式；通过结合兵棋地图、一二维非恒定流等方法对城市暴雨内涝数值模拟模型进行了改进，满足了兵棋推演模型需要；利用改进后的城市暴雨内涝数值模型模拟出不同暴雨重现期下的道路积水情景，实现了城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟；通过正六边形网格兵棋地图生成、兵棋棋子及推演规则设定，综合构建了人与自然对抗的城市暴雨内涝灾害居民应急避难兵棋推演博弈模型；以Microsoft Visual Studio 2010和ArcEngine9.3为基本研发平台，结合城市暴雨内涝数值模拟模型，综合构建了基于B/S结构的城市暴雨内涝灾害居民应急避难兵棋推演系统。研究结果可为城市内涝灾害情景模拟与应急管理提供决策依据。