基于情景模拟与风险认知的城市暴雨积涝灾害居民避难迁安研究

This research focuses on the weak points of the scientific basis, control and emergency managements of urban warterlogging disaster caused by heavy rain, taking old town of Harbin as study area. In order to build the decision making model for resident evacuation and retreating, based on multi-elements, risk formation theory of urban warterlogging disaster caused by heavy rain and the method of resident evacuation and retreating need to be researched. Indoor and outdoor experiments, mathematical method, 3S technology are used to realize multi-information fuse and the foundation of resident evacuation and retreating model for warterlogging disaster caused by heavy rain. The research results can be used on the key problems of urban warterlogging disaster caused by heavy rain early warning and shelter location distribution, building the system of resident evacuation and retreating for urban warterlogging disaster caused by heavy rain, realize resident refuge management quantization, automation and visualization for urban warterlogging disaster caused by heavy rain. This research can make up the shortages in resident evacuation and retreating for urban warterlogging disaster caused by heavy rain in China, and solve the key problem in the emergency management of urban warterlogging disaster caused by heavy rain. The research results can be extended to other cities in China. It promoted the research progress of emergency management for urban warterlogging disaster caused by heavy rain. The research results could be used as the scientific basis and technical supports for relevant government management department to make the decision of daily urban warterlogging disaster caused by heavy rain management and contingency plan system.

本项目针对城市暴雨积涝灾害科学基础研究、控制和应急管理的薄弱环节，以哈尔滨市老城区为研究示范区，通过对城市暴雨积涝灾害风险形成机理和居民避难迁安方法等基础问题的研究，构建多要素城市居民避难迁安决策模型。研究将综合运用室内外实验、数理方法、3S技术，实现多源信息融合，实现暴雨积涝灾害居民避难迁安决策模型构建，研究结果可应用在城市暴雨积涝灾害预警及应急避难所布局优化与救助等应急管理的关键问题上，构建城市暴雨积涝灾害居民避难迁安系统，实现城市暴雨积涝灾害居民避难迁安和应急管理的数字化、自动化和可视化。本研究将弥补我国城市暴雨积涝灾害避难迁安与应急管理研究基础的不足，解决城市暴雨积涝灾害应急管理的关键性问题，研究结果可以推广到我国其它城市，推动城市暴雨积涝灾害应急管理研究的进程。研究成果将为各级城市暴雨积涝灾害管理部门制定城市暴雨积涝灾害日常管理对策、应急预案体系和减灾规划提供科学依据和技术支撑。

针对近些年我国各大城市积涝灾害频发，给人民生命财产安全造成重大威胁的严峻形势和我国暴雨积涝灾害管理方面的薄弱环节。本项目以城市暴雨积涝灾害为研究对象，以哈尔滨市老城区为研究示范区，从应急管理角度出发，对城市居民如何采取避难迁安进行了研究。. 首先，针对哈尔滨市历史降雨资料，利用信息扩散理论计算哈尔滨市暴雨发生概率，分别以5年一遇、100年一遇作为哈尔滨市暴雨积涝情景，模拟了两种情景下城市积涝淹没道路水深、位置、流速。开展了城市暴雨积涝灾害形成机理及风险评价模型的构建，研究了哈尔滨市格网尺度上的暴雨积来灾害风险时空分布规律。. 其次，以发放问卷及居民水中行走实验为依据，从影响居民避难内因与外因两方面构建城市暴雨积涝灾害居民避难困难度评价指标体系及模型，研究相关的评价内容。通过分析避难问卷及居民水中行走实验结果，结合居民避难困难度评价模型得出评价等级。. 第三，运用集合覆盖理论及选址理论结合GIS技术，以积涝灾害危险性为危险源，提出了应急避难所及应急物资库优化布局方法，并实现了哈尔滨市道里区应急避难所与应急物资库优化布局结果：区内设置应急避难所53个、应急物资库7个才能满足道里区暴雨积涝灾害应急需要。. 第四，在Dijkstra算法基础上，引入避难困难度概念，构建了居民避难迁安动态最优路径。利用模糊可变综合评价方法实现需求点（积涝点）与服务点（避难所）之间的对应关系，满足居民避难迁安需要。同时，以运筹学理论中的线性规划为基础，结合动态最优路径算法实现城市暴雨积涝灾害应急救援方法。在以上基础上构建了城市暴雨积涝灾害居民避难迁安概念、模型及算法。. 最后，采用典型的B/S体系结构、SQL Servrce2008、ArcEngine9.3、Microsoft Visual Studio 2008中C#语言为基本开发工具，依据系统开发原则，综合设计城市暴雨积涝灾害居民避难迁安决策支持系统。. 本研究成果可为我国城市规划以及政府部门提供准确、快速的防涝、减灾及居民迁安避险决策依据。