多维视角下的突发事件信息动态分类及应急决策方法研究

When an emergency event (EE) occurs, how to take effective and appropriate measures to deal with it in order to control for the escalation and deterioration of the situation has become an important component of emergency management. Extant studies have discussed the related problems of emergency decision making (EDM), however, there are still some shortcomings and practical problems that have not been involved yet and urgently need to be resolved. This project takes the related problems of EDM as the research object, and gradually carries out the following researches: (1) studying information sorting problem of EE under dynamic perspective, and constructing models and methodologies for information sorting and its interconnectedness analysis of EE under dynamic perspective; (2) studying the sorting problem of emergency alternatives under dynamic perspective, establishing the sorting models and methodologies for emergency alternatives of EE under dynamic perspective according to the information sorting results and its interconnectedness; (3) studying dynamic EDM problems, building dynamic EDM models and methodologies under multi-dimensional perspectives; (4) development and application of prototype system, conducting technical implementing with respect to aforementioned proposed different models and methodologies, developing corresponding prototype system. The research outcomes have important theoretical and practical significance to the enrichment and perfection of EDM theories and methods and provide support theoretically and method guidance for coping with the practical problems.

当突发事件发生时，如何采取有效、恰当的措施进行应对以控制事态的升级和恶化成为应急管理的重要组成部分。已有研究对应急决策的相关问题进行了探讨，但还存在一些不足和尚未涉及且亟需解决的实际问题。本项目以应急决策的相关问题为研究对象，逐步展开以下研究：（1）研究动态视角下突发事件的信息分类问题，构建动态视角下的突发事件信息分类及其相互关联性分析的模型与方法；（2）研究动态视角下应急方案的分类问题，根据信息的分类结果及其相互关联性，构建动态视角下的突发事件应急方案的分类模型与方法；（3）研究动态应急决策问题，构建多维视角下的动态应急决策模型与方法；（4）原型系统的开发与应用，针对上述提出的不同模型与方法进行技术实现，开发出相应的原型系统。研究成果在丰富和完善应急决策理论与方法的同时，为实际问题的应对处置提供理论支撑和方法指导，具有重要的理论和实际意义。

当突发事件发生时，如何采取有效、恰当的措施进行应对以控制事态的升级和恶化成为应急管理的重要组成部分。已有研究对应急决策的相关问题进行了探讨，但还存在一些不足和尚未涉及且亟需解决的实际问题。本项目以应急决策的相关问题为研究对象，展开了系列较为深入的研究，主要有针对突发事件相互关联性分析及在模糊环境下的信息丢失问题、针对大量繁杂的信息，提出考虑决策者有限理性的分类方法、针对模糊和复杂决策环境下，突发事件的预警及动态应急决策等相关问题。本项目所取得的重要成果包括：共计完成学术论文17篇（不含在投和修改论文），其中录用/发表SCI期刊论文15篇，这些成果被SCI收录的高水平论文引用136次，产生了积极的社会影响和良好的社会效益。培养硕博研究是17人、已取得博士学位的研究生5人，获批国家社会科学基金青年项目一项（1人），积极参与国内外学术交流始终保持高水平的交流与合作，项目取得的成果总体超过“完成7-10篇其中SCI/SSCI论文3-4篇；培养硕士研究生2-5人，培养博士研究生4-6人” 的原定目标。研究成果对发展和完善我国突发事件预警、应急决策的理论与方法具有重要的理论和实际意义。