家庭农场存续期内土地保护性投入的影响因素研究：以测土配方施肥为例

How to guide the new type subjects such as family farms using formulation fertilizer and to fill the gap of formula fertilizer to the fields is confronted in technology extension work. Formula fertilization by soil testing could improve soil quality. This investment with attributes of protecting and enhancing cultivated land’s productive ability should be guaranteed by recovering cost and obtaining revenue in existing period. This study would focus on the impact of the period of existence on input on cultivated land. Family farms are bounded rationality in existing period; based on the experiments with economic principles, the farmers’ perceived uncertainty regarding formula fertilizer allows individual risk preferences to play an important role in technology adoption, which is the other main focus of this research. Meanwhile, the study would discuss if transaction cost is the key to limiting family farms using formulation fertilizer in analysis of cost-benefit of family farm’s management decisions. These studies will reveal existing obstacles in the extension of formula fertilizer, which provide the basis for government subsidies adjusted and improved. The study will introduce the theory of life-cycle into family farm’s management decision making process, which contributes to the extension of traditional agricultural household model.

如何引导家庭农场等新型农业经营主体采用测土配方施肥技术，破解配方肥下地“最后一公里”瓶颈是当前技术推广工作面临的新挑战。由于配方肥具有改良土壤质量的效果，这种对土地资产生产性能保护和提升的投入行为必须建立在存续期内收回成本并产生收益的基础上。因此，本课题首先研究家庭农场存续期长短对采纳测土配方施肥技术的影响；在存续期内，家庭农场是有限理性的，所以，根据实验经济学方法，研究家庭农场的风险偏好对测土配方施肥技术采纳的影响是本课题的另一关键；同时，本课题将交易成本加入到家庭农场经营决策的成本收益分析中，探讨交易成本是否成为限制家庭农场采用测土配方施肥技术的因素。以上研究将揭示家庭农场在采纳配方施肥技术过程中的障碍，为政府完善和调整补贴政策提供依据。本课题在家庭农场经营决策分析中引入生命周期理论，是对传统农户模型的拓展，具有一定的理论价值。

基于2016年江苏省和安徽省的调研数据，本研究综合运用多种模型探究影响家庭农场存续期的因素及存续期对家庭农场土地保护性投入行为的影响。运用Mvprobit模型研究劳动力外出务工与农户耕地质量保护行为的关系，结果表明，常年外出务工抑制了农户耕地质量保护性投入，本地务工务农兼业则促进了农户耕地质量保护性投入。运用OLS与IV-2SLS方法研究家庭农场存续期的影响因素，结果表明，家庭农场户主年龄对存续期有显著的负向影响，加入合作社、流转土地面积、租金与存续期呈显著正相关。运用Heckman两阶段模型研究家庭农场存续期对土地保护性投入影响，结果表明，家庭农场存续期对测土配方肥采纳的强度有正向影响。本文主要得出以下政策建议：第一，在耕地质量保护技术推广过程中，相关部门应以重视农业生产的主体为重点推广对象；第二，对于家庭主要劳动力在外地务工的农户，应顺应其非农化意愿，帮助具有留城意愿的农户在城镇落户生根；第三，在促进农户耕地质量保护方面，还应努力改善农田灌溉基础设施条件、积极推进农机社会化服务市场发展、继续加强耕地质量保护技术指导力度、充分发挥合作社示范与宣传功能等。