人口流动家庭化背景下流动家庭住房的区位选择及其机制：以福建省为例

The floating population’ housing is an important issue that needs to be dealt with in promoting the new type urbanization, and familization is an new trend in the development of the floating population’ migration in China. However, so far research on the choices of housing location of the floating families and that on the familization of the floating population’s migration have mostly been conducted along two unrelated paths; rarely has there been any research that attempts to explore the two important issues in an inter-related way, resulting in the poor understanding of the choices of floating families’ housing location and their mechanism in the context of familization of the floating population’s migration. Taking Fujian Province as a case study, this project aims to address the above limitations of research so far. The project will first conduct a questionnaire survey and subsequent in-depth interviews to collect information and data on the process of migration of the floating population and their families, and their changing housing location and characteristics. Then，taking the family as the basic analytical unit and using descriptive analysis, survival analysis, GIS spatial analysis, and various multivariate statistical modeling techniques such as logistics regression and Cox’s proportional hazards regression model, the project will systematically examine the evolution and its mechanism of housing location and characteristics of floating families under the trend of familization of floating population’s migration, in the hope to fill in the above gap of research and expand and deepen the understanding of the choices of housing location of the floating population. On the basis of the above research, the project will further explore the evolving choices of housing location of the floating population and their theoretical and policy implications under the context of China’s new type urbanization.

流动人口的住房问题是新型城镇化进程中需要解决的一个重要问题;人口流动家庭化是中国人口流动发展进程中出现的一个新趋势。但迄今对流动家庭住房区位选择和人口家庭化流动的研究往往是在互不关联的情况下分别进行的，将两者结合起来的研究还十分鲜见，人们对人口流动家庭化背景下流动家庭住房的区位选择及其机制的认识还十分薄弱。本研究针对这一问题，以福建省为例，通过问卷调查和深入访谈获取流动家庭成员的流动过程以及流动家庭住房区位和特征变动的数据，以家庭为分析单元，使用描述性统计、生存分析、GIS空间分析、Logistic回归模型和Cox比例风险模型等统计模型等方法，系统考察流动家庭住房的区位选择及相关住房特征在人口流动家庭化过程中的演变与机制，拓展和深化对流动人口住房区位选择及其机制的规律性认识，弥补现有研究的不足；并在此基础上对流动人口家庭住房区位选择及其机制的演变规律做出新的理论概括并提出相关政策建议。

流动人口的住房问题是新型城镇化进程中需要解决的一个重要问题；人口流动家庭化是中国人口流动发展进程中出现的一个新趋势，但迄今将两者结合起来的研究还十分鲜见，人们对人口流动家庭化背景下流动家庭住房的区位选择及其机制的认识还十分薄弱。本项目针对这一问题，基于项目执行期间收集到的抽样调查数据和全国流动人口动态监测调查数据，考察了流动人口家庭成员的空间配置模式及其变动、流动家庭在流出地的住房投资，在流入地住房特征的演变，未来的购房意愿和购房区位选择等。项目通过上述工作得出了一系列重要结论，其中包括：（1）随着流动经历的丰富，越来越多的流动人口家庭成员配置在流入地，流动人口家庭化流动向更深层次发展；流动人口个体及其家庭的社会经济特征、流动特征与居留意愿、生命历程变化等因素均对上述变化产生显著影响。（2）流动人口在流出地村庄内建房或在县城（镇）内购房是其流动期间一较为普遍的现象，主城区是除村庄以外回流定居农民工重要的居住空间选择；这一结果是流动人口个体的生命历程特征、家庭的跨地区生计决策和社区的地理环境综合作用的结果。（3）随着在流入地居住时间的延长，流动家庭居住区位边缘化、住房类型市场化趋势明显，但住房条件改善乏力。（4）流动人口现流入城市永久居留的愿意不高，流入地的住房类型、居住区位、居住家庭化程度和享有住房保障是影响其城市居留意愿的重要因素。（5）流动人口在流入地购房的意愿高于流出地，流入城市的GDP、房价、人口构成显著地影响了流动人口的购房区位选择。上述研究拓展和深化了对流动人口住房区位选择及其机制的规律性认识，同时也为流动人口的服务管理和相关政策的制定提供了可靠的科学依据。