产业投资与产业结构的空间互动演化关系：直接、溢出与反馈效应

There are obvious regional differences in industrial investment efficiency. Clearing the role of industrial investment on different regions and industries has important significance to make reasonable arrangements for the regional distribution of investment and industrial layout, promote the coordinated development of regional economy, industrial structure optimization and the formation and development of special industries, and enhance the quality and quantity of national economy in the new normal of lower investment rate. From three aspects, including intermediate demand Association, investment demand Association, and association of consumer demand of different industries among regions, Spatial linkage mechanism between industrial investment and industrial structure is discussed. Then, a regional dynamic input-output model is constructed, which can be used to analysis the direct effect, spillover effect , feedback effect and their timing variation of industrial investment on industrial structure. Finally， it discusses how to realize the overall goals of industrial structure upgrade by reasonable layout of investment, and put forward some related suggestions which can improve the efficiency of industry investment allocation and guide the rational distribution of industry investment. In theory, it pioneering investigates the direct, spillover and feedback effects of industry investment on the regional industrial structure from three dimensions of time, space and industry. In practice, it is helpful to find the cause of industrial investment efficiency difference and the sticking point of industry development gap, predict the established industry investment policy implementation effect, and provide the basis for industrial investment efficiency and reasonable layout.

产业投资效率具有明显的地区差异性，明确投资对不同区域和产业的作用，对于在投资降速的新常态下合理安排投资的地区分布和产业布局，促进区域经济协调发展、产业结构优化和特色产业的形成及发展壮大，实现国民经济质和量的提高有重要意义。课题从中间需求关联、投资需求关联和消费需求关联三个方面探讨产业投资与产业结构间的空间作用机制，进而构建区域间动态投入产出模型，借此推导产业投资对产业结构的直接效应、溢出效应和反馈效应及其时序变化，并探讨如何通过投资的合理布局实现产业结构升级的总体目标，提出提高产业投资配置效率与引导产业投资合理布局的相关建议。理论上，从时间、空间、产业三个维度考察产业投资对各区域产业结构的直接、溢出和反馈作用，丰富和完善了投入产出、产业结构优化等相关理论。实践上，有利于发现产业投资效率差异的成因以及产业发展差距的症结，预测既定产业投资政策的实施效果，为产业投资效率的提高和合理布局提供依据。

区域产业间发展存在广泛的密切联系。课题组在分析区域行业间投资需求关联、消费需求关联和中间需求关联的基础上构建区域间动态投入产出模型，并运用该模型分析产业投资对产业结构的直接效应、溢出效应和反馈效应。主要研究内容和研究结果包括：首先，在明确区域与区域间，区域内各行业间以及区际行业间的中间需求关联、投资需求关联和消费需求关联的基础上，结合国民收入决定理论与区域静态投入产出模型，构建区域间动态投入产出模型；其次，界定直接效应、溢出效应和反馈效应的含义，明确其作用路径，提出三种效应的测度方法；第三，按照课题确定的测度方法，运用中国区域间投入产出表数据测度产业投资对区域各产业产出以及区域GDP的直接效应、溢出效应和反馈效应；第四，应用课题确定行业间投资需求关联和消费需求关联的方法，结合高质量发展战略下经济发展所面临的能源环境约束，研究投资结构和消费结构变动对CO2排放的影响。最后，应用课题建立的区域间投入产出模型，研究京冀区际产业转移对能源消耗的影响。课题研究成果丰富和完善了投入产出、产业结构优化等相关理论，并可以运用课题成果预测区域各行业的发展态势以及投资政策的实施效果。