新疆艾比湖流域冰川物质平衡模拟及其水资源效应研究

In arid and semi-arid regions, especially in northwest China, glacier runoff is the main contributor to water resources that are used to support the sustainable development of the environment, industry and agriculture. The Ebinur lake basin is located on the north slope of the western Tien Shan and southwest of the Junggar basin, China. The total area of the basin is 50 621km2. There is a typical temperate arid continental climate, with the mountain–oasis–desert system having the typical characteristics of temperate arid ecology. However, over the past several decades the ecology and environment of the Ebinur lake basin have seriously degenerated due to human activity and climate change. Hence, recent glacier mass balance change and their impact on water resources in the Ebinur lake basin attracts wide attention. Glacier mass balance is regarded as the bridge and tie between the meteorology and water resources, so the monitoring and simulation for mass balance is always one of the frontier research topics. A physical energy-balance model and two statistical degree-day factor models based upon temperature-index, radiation-index and temperature-radiation-vapor-index will be present in this study, in which Haxilegen Glacier No. 51 is the reference glacier. We will choose the best model to study the glacier mass balance in the Ebinur lake basin. This research will fill up the blank of this field in our country, and offer the theory for prediction the glacier water resources change under the climate change.

艾比湖流域地处我国西北内陆干旱区，冰川融水在其水资源构成中占有极其重要的地位。在全球变暖背景下，该流域的冰川整体上呈现出以退缩为主的变化趋势，这种变化已严重影响该流域水资源的合理利用，生态安全乃至社会经济的可持续发展。本项目拟选取有较长时间监测资料的奎屯河哈希勒根51号冰川为参照冰川，开展冰川物质平衡模式对比研究，分析该冰川物质平衡过程与消融的机理。在开展参照冰川研究的基础上，由点到面，尝试建立适应于区域尺度的简化物质平衡模型，模拟艾比湖流域冰川的物质平衡，计算冰川的融水径流量，进而评估艾比湖流域冰川水资源效应。本项研究属于冰川学领域研究的热点和难点之一，通过本项目的实施，可改变过去以单点物质平衡模型研究为主，而针对区域尺度模型较少的学科发展瓶颈问题。此外，本研究还可为艾比湖流域水资源的合理利用提供基础数据和科学依据，对我国西北干旱区冰川水资源的开发利用与绿洲经济的发展具有重要的参考价值。

在新疆艾比湖流域的水资源构成中，冰川融水在其水资源构成中占有极其重要的地位。在全球变暖背景下，该流域的冰川整体上呈现出以退缩为主的变化趋势，这种变化已严重影响该流域水资源的合理利用，生态安全乃至社会经济的可持续发展。本项目以新疆奎屯河哈希勒根51号冰川为参照冰川，模拟艾比湖流域冰川的物质平衡，计算冰川的融水径流量，进而评估艾比湖流域冰川水资源效应。本项研究在此基金的支持下，历时三年，取得了预期的研究成果。期间，共发表研究论文4篇，参与出版专著1部；共培养6名研究生，其中2名博士研究生和1名硕士研究生已经顺利完成学业，目前还有1名博士生和2名硕士生在读；项目主要成员作为主要完成人获得了2019年度中科院杰出科技成就奖；形成了一个擅长野外观测、拼搏在国际研究前缘的青年团队。通过本项目的实施，改变了过去以单点物质平衡模型研究为主，而针对区域尺度模型较少的学科发展瓶颈问题。此外，本研究还可为艾比湖流域水资源的合理利用提供基础数据和科学依据，对我国西北干旱区冰川水资源的开发利用与绿洲经济的发展具有重要的参考价值。