重大建设项目驱动社会冲突的聚集与扩散研究：触发机理、传播路径与治理机制

Under the potential effect of social environment, urban mega construction projects often trigger public confrontation, leading to serious social conflicts, of which the mechanism is still obscure. This project takes engineering social conflicts as the object, applying the theory of engineering sociology and risk communication to discuss the aggregation and diffusion mechanism of actuation, which the construction projects exert on social conflicts. With the analysis of risk multi-body characteristics and social embeddedness, this paper discusses the influence mechanism of the actuation which construction projects giving to social resource imbalance, resulting in game behaviors of the stakeholders, and deduces the timing, condition and mode of the risk. Through the influence determination of the key factors in construction projects applying on public role transformation, we build the mechanism of the formation, aggregation and diffusion of the conflicts in social network; Next, sum up the dynamic law of the conflict stimulating and spreading in disparate time domain spaces with mining and analysis of media spatial data, thus proposing mutual behavior patterns in media communication of rumors triggered by construction projects; Finally, establish the engineering social conflicts early warning model to explore the pattern of public participation and web-based governance mechanism of social conflicts network, and then put forward the policy framework for governing social conflict in construction project. This research will help to reveal the theoretical core of which drives social conflict in current Chinese mega construction projects, and provide the analytical path and decision-making references for urban sustainable development and mega construction projects to accomplish comprehensive benefit.

由于潜在的社会环境影响，城镇重大建设项目常引发公众的对抗行为而导致严重的社会冲突，而此种冲突诸多机理尚不明晰。本课题以工程社会冲突为研究对象，运用工程社会学和风险传播理论，探讨建设项目驱动社会冲突聚集与扩散机理。通过冲突影响因素与特征诊断，探讨建设项目驱动社会资源失衡及对利益相关群体博弈行为的影响机制，推导冲突触发条件、时机和方式；通过测定建设项目关键因素及对公众角色转换影响，构建冲突在社会网络中形成、聚集和传播的作用机理；通过媒体网络数据挖掘、识别与分析，归纳不同时域空间中冲突激发扩散的动态规律，提出工程谣言传播中的传授双方行为模式；构建工程社会风险预警模型，探讨建设工程公众参与模式和社会冲突网络治理机制，以此提出建设工程社会冲突治理的政策框架。本课题有助于揭示现阶段我国城镇重大建设项目驱动社会冲突的理论内核，为城市可持续发展和重大建设项目发挥综合效益提供分析路径和决策参考。

重大建设工程因涉及多方利益而常触发社会冲突，重大工程的复杂性和信息时代的发展导致冲突在社会网络和社交媒体中演化升级，缺乏及时有效的冲突治理方案，加剧工程社会冲突的聚集与扩散，引发严重的城市社会问题。本研究聚焦重大工程引发的社会冲突议题，系统探究了工程决策、规划和建设引发社会冲突的触发机理、传播路径和治理机制，通过梳理和分析国内外工程社会冲突的相关理论研究和实践案例，归纳了当前重大建设工程引发社会冲突的成因、影响和治理模式；从社会网络维度出发，研究了信息获取、感知风险收益与公众接受度的关系，并聚焦重大工程影响下的弱势群体问题，分析了非自愿迁移群体社会融合的阶段性特征及其对感知歧视的缓解；从社交媒体出发，定位社交媒体中的利益相关者角色，结合信息扩散模式，综合分析了工程社会冲突问题中的谣言传播周期性规律，以此构建辟谣策略框架。针对冲突主要参与者的工程利益相关者，研究实际工程案例中的多方参与意愿、接受程度、支付意愿等核心因素，以充分调动公众参与为对策核心，提出工程社会冲突的社会预警机制和网络治理模式。本研究旨在描绘重大建设工程引发社会冲突的传播路径与扩散机制，为快速城市化的持续发展和高度信息化背景下的重大工程冲突规避提供决策思路和优化路径。