社会化媒体下重大决策社会稳定风险传导路径与防控机制研究

In order to provide theoretical basis and policy suggestions for government to protect the public's rights and interests, resolve social contradictions, prevent and control social stability risk, this project will consider social medias, deeply studying the transfer paths and the prevention & control mechanism of major policy decision’s social stability risk with Chinese characteristics , from the perspectives of social ecological system management, stakeholder and process analysis. Firstly, we define the scope of social stability risk assessment, assessment parties and corresponding responsibilities,and consider the impacts of social medias to establish major policy decision’s social stability risk assessment system with Chinese characteristics using FAHP, TFN and RST. Secondly , we identify the sources of social stability risk caused by major policy decisions,and model the transfer paths of social stability risk in Chinese situations considering social medias, using social burning theory, social amplification theory of risk, social network theory and Relative deprivation theory. Thirdly, we investigate the prevention and control mechanisms of major policy decision’s social stability risk considering social medias, including risk feed-forward checking, risk transformation warning and risk feedback responding. Finally, we conduct simulation experiments to verify the efficiency and operability of the results of this project.

本项目拟从利益相关者和过程分析视角，对社会化媒体下重大决策社会稳定风险的传导机理与防控机制进行深入研究，为政府维护群众权益、化解社会矛盾、防控社会稳定风险提供理论依据与政策建议。具体来说，以重大决策为研究起点，界定社会稳定风险的评估范围、评估主体及其责任，并通过集成模糊层次分析法、三角模糊数、粗糙集等方法建立社会化媒体下具有中国特色的重大决策社会稳定风险评估体系；结合中国特殊国情，综合运用社会燃烧理论、风险的社会放大理论、社会网络理论及相对剥夺理论等，有效识别中国情境下的重大决策社会稳定风险源，构建出社会化媒体下的重大决策社会稳定风险传导模型；进而构建出包括风险前馈排查、风险危情转化预警和风险反馈应对等的社会化媒体下具有中国特色的重大决策社会稳定风险防控机制；最后，通过风险干预模拟实验，对本项目研究成果的有效性和可操作性进行验证。

本项目研究社会化媒体下重大决策社会稳定风险传导路径与防控机制，具体来说，以重大决策为研究起点，界定社会稳定风险的评估范围、评估主体及其责任，并通过文本分析法、问卷调查、深入访谈等方法建立社会化媒体下具有中国特色的重大决策社会稳定风险评估体系；结合中国特殊国情，综合运用风险的社会放大理论、社会网络理论、委托代理理论等，有效识别中国情境下的重大决策社会稳定风险源，构建出社会化媒体下的重大决策社会稳定风险传导模型；进而构建出包括风险前馈排查、风险危情转化预警和风险反馈应对等的社会化媒体下具有中国特色的重大决策社会稳定风险防控机制；最后，通过风险干预模拟实验，对本项目研究成果的有效性和可操作性进行验证。最终，项目成果获得湖南省政府重要领导人批示，并在International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health（JCR一区），Sustainability（JCR二区）国际期刊和中国行政管理、公共行政评论等由CSSCI收录的国内期刊上发表论文共20篇。