中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力的转移占用过程研究

The assessment of ecosystem sustainability is a superiority field of international ecological economy and research on sustainable development. Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) is a new measure of human intervention into the ecosystem by considering the capacity of ecosystem to provide net primary production and the demands of humans. However, the extension of its theory is constrained by unclear regional diffusion process of net primary production appropriated by humans and the uncertain threshold that indicates ecosystem sustainability. Based on overall assessment of the HANPP on national and regional scales, the goal of this research is 1) to analysis the transfer process of appropriation of net primary production and investigate its potential driving forces relying on the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model; 2) to explore and determine the threshold of HANPP from the perspective of ecosystem biodiversity conservation theory by reserving a certain amount of potential ecosystem net primary production to protect ecosystem biodiversity; 3) to assess the current situation and spatial features of Chinese ecosystem sustainability and reveal the impact factors of ecosystem sustainability; and to explore the feasible paths to realize ecosystem sustainable develop and promote human living standard, which can provide scientific basis for policy making for ecosystem protection and utilization to guide human activities.

生态系统的可持续性评估是当前国际生态经济学界和可持续发展研究的前沿领域。生态系统净初级生产力的人类占用(HANPP)从生态系统净初级生产力的生产和人类的需求角度直观体现了人类活动对生态系统的胁迫程度，是当前生态可持续性定量评估的主流方法之一。然而，其理论的进一步发展和应用受到净初级生产力占用的区域扩散过程不明、指示生态可持续的阈值模糊等关键问题的限制。本项目拟在全国及省级2001-2015年HANPP定量评估的基础上，1）构建多区域HANPP投入产出模型，分析生态系统净初级生产力的空间转移占用水平及转移路径，阐明生态占用区际扩散过程及驱动力；2）测算生态系统生物多样性保护所需的生态系统潜在净初级生产力，研究确定指示区域生态可持续的HANPP阈值；3）系统评估中国生态可持续现状及区域差异，探讨兼顾生活水平提高和生态可持续的可行路径，为合理制定生态系统保护和利用策略，科学引导人类活动提供依据。

本项目系统分析了中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力的人类占用情况，研究结果表明：1）中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力（NPP）总量呈增加趋势，从2001年的4.53PgC增加到2017年的5.00PgC，年均增量约为0.0217PgC/yr；2）由于人口增加和生活水平的提高，2001-2017年间人类活动占用的生态系统净初级生产力（NPPh）增加了0.126Pgc；3）人类占用与生态系统净初级实际生产的生产力的比例（HANPP）增加并不明显，2001-2017年间只增加了0.3%，说明人类占用的增加基本可以被生态系统生产力的增加所抵消；4）从空间上，东部沿海地区是HANPP的主要消费区，而主要粮食产地省份是HANPP的主要供给区。