净初级生产力人类占用定量估算的离散格网模型研究

Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) of ecosystems is an aggregate indicator for sustainable development in ecology and society. HANPP has been extensively to quantitatively assess the impacts of humanity on the ecosystems through estimating the magnitudes of potential net primary production appropriated by human activities. The quantitative estimate of HANPP is not only concerned with the context of sustainable development in ecology and society, but also a conspicuously complicated issue of geo-computing in the area of geographical information science. The primary objective of this project is to explore discrete grid system (DGS) based approaches to quantitatively estimate the tempo-spatial patterns in HANPP. In this study, we will develop a new earth ellipsoid-based square DGS and expand relative data management and processing methods, spatial analysis and modeling approaches to extend the scope of estimate for HANPP from regional magnitudes to multi-scale spatial patterns. As the validation and application of the DGS-based HANPP estimation method, we will conduct the first quantitative estimates for HANPP of terrestrial ecosystems at multiple scales across China as well as the accuracy assessment of HANPP results. This study will not only have the potential insights for the application of discrete grid system in complicated geo-computing issues, but also provide a systematic approach and quantitative estimates for an important ecological indicator at multiple scales.

净初级生产力的人类占用（HANPP）通过计算人类所占用的光合作用产品的数量来评价人类对于生物圈的影响程度。HANPP的定量估算不仅具有显著的生态和社会可持续发展研究意义，同时也是一个需要借助于地理信息的理论和方法来解决的典型复杂地学计算问题。本研究将通过发展基于地球椭球体剖分所建立的正方形全球离散格网系统以及相应的多源数据处理和分析方法，建立适用于大区域、多尺度HANPP空间定量估算的离散格网模型，进而将HANPP由现有的区域总量估算扩展到多尺度空间分布格局的估算。作为该方法和模型的实际应用与检验，本研究将对中国陆地生态系统的HANPP空间格局在多尺度离散格网系统上进行定量估算与分析。本项目不仅可以从理论上为探讨如何利用全球离散格网系统解决类似复杂地学计算问题提供新的建模分析方法，还可以在解决实际地学问题上为评价人类活动对生态系统的影响提供一个重要指标的多尺度空间定量化估算模型与实证结果。

本项目的主要研究目标是建立离散格网化的中国陆地生态系统HANPP的定量估算。在研究的具体实施过程中，主要进行了以下内容的探索：（1）以基于消费的HANPP为建模估算研究基础，在建立的覆盖中国的离散格网的基础上，对2000年的中国HANPP进行了的定量估算，（2）利用多源地理空间数据，探讨了中国城市化和社会经济发展的定量感知与时空趋势分析方法，建立了对于影响HANPP时空趋势的社会经济因子的分析基础，（3）以2000年的HANPP为基础，结合影响HANPP的社会经济发展和技术进步因子的变化趋势，利用IPAT模型（Impact = Population*Affluence*Technology）对2000-2050年的中国陆地生态系统的HANPP在离散格网空间上进行了定量的估算与未来情景分析。