关系型融资视角下供应链金融集成服务商的运营策略研究

From the perspective of relationship financing attributes of supply chain financial integrated service providers, which coordinates both the physical chain and cash chain, we will firstly establish the search cost model via the intermediary chain theory to reveal the operational mechanism of integrated service providers and the applicable channel structure. Further, due to the vulnerability caused by opaque information and nonverifiable outcomes of relationship financing, we will resort to the infinite repeated game, Bayesian equilibrium and Markov equilibrium theory to construct the optimal relational incentive contracts when the value of the relationship evolves between contracting parties, which depends on the bargaining power. Finally, considering the impact of macroeconomic variables such as business cycle and other systematic risk variables on the leverage of integrated service providers, we will study the dynamic allocation of service capabilities of integrated service providers under capital constraints. This project will further enrich the theoretical research on the existing supply chain finance, and provide the decision basis for the operation and risk management for the integrated service providers of supply chain finance.

立足供应链金融集成服务商在商品交易供应链和资金供应链的协调者角色所体现出的关系型融资属性，本项目首先通过中介链理论建立搜寻成本模型，揭示供应链金融集成服务商的运作机理及其所适用的渠道权力结构；进一步，针对关系型融资所体现出的融资主体的信息不透明以及缔约结果难以被第三方证实的特点所引致的风险脆弱性，运用无限期重复博弈、贝叶斯均衡以及马尔可夫均衡理论构建不同权力结构下最优的关系型激励契约，实现关系价值动态演化下供应链金融集成服务商对于融资企业的动态激励；最后，考虑宏观经济周期等系统性风险变量对于集成服务商自身杠杆率的影响，研究资金供给约束下集成服务商服务能力的动态分配问题。本项目将进一步丰富现有供应链金融的理论研究，为供应链金融集成服务商的业务运作及风险管理提供决策依据。

立足供应链金融集成服务商在商品交易供应链和资金供应链的协调者角色所体现出的关系型融资属性，本项目运用博弈论、数学优化、实证分析等方法开展了以下几个问题的研究：其一，研究了贸易中断背景下供应链的风险缓释和协调研究，提出了一类包含贸易信用契约和最小订购量的组合契约，实现了供应链参与主体的帕累托改进和供应链协调，拓展研究了具有多层产品的双渠道环境，考察社会影响和损失厌恶对供应链决策和渠道协调的影响；其二，研究了多周期环境下具有有限履约能力的供应链金融合约下，供应链金融集成服务商的动态投资决策问题，提出了基于动态规划的多周期静态简化方法，研究了履约能力、贴现因子、外部选择权的动态变化对于供应链整体效率的影响；其三，展开了考虑宏观经济波动与行业动态的供应链金融资产的风险管理研究，提出了一类考虑宏观经济波动和行业异质性的综合不确定性指数模型，进而构建了基于混频数据的供应链金融资产波动率GARCH-MIDAS-CU(h)模型，相较于仅考虑宏观经济波动的预测模型，取得了明显改善效果。本项目对于后全球化和疫情常态化时期的供应链金融运营管理决策具有重要的学术价值，同时也为企业应对供应链金融风险提供了理论依据和实践指导。