变化条件下跨流域水库群联合优化调度研究

The hydrologic characteristics have changed significantly under the coupling effects of climate change and human interference, and this has posed new challenges to the research of the joint optimal operation of inter-basin reservoirs under the changing conditions. This proposal focuses on the two main weak taches, that is, the non-stationary analysis of changing conditions and the optimal operation methods combing the response mechanism of hydrology to the changing conditions. The main objectives are: firstly, analyze the evolution tendency and regularity of the non-stationarity of the characteristic value of the changing conditions. Secondly, reveal the runoff compensation mechanism between the importing and exporting regions combing the random-sampling technique and the hydrologic cycle simulation model considering the effects of climate change and human interference. And then combining the runoff compensation mechanism, the global sensitivity analysis method and the optimization algorithm, the method of joint optimal operation of inter-basin reservoirs based on the mechanism analysis and multi-source information is proposed. The method is further applied in the optimal operation of different regulation scenarios of multi-reservoirs under changing conditions to analyze the uncertainty and adaption of optimal regulation rules of inter-basin reservoirs, thereby solving the problem of the “curse of dimensionality” of the complex joint optimization of reservoirs and the adaption of optimal regulation rules to provide decision-making support and scientific basis for effective utilization of inter-basin water resources.

在气候变化和人类活动耦合作用下，流域间的水文要素都发生了相应变化，使得变化条件下跨流域水库群联合优化调度研究呈现出了新的特点和难题。本项目针对其中两个主要薄弱环节展开研究，即变化条件的非静态性分析和结合机理机制信息的优化调度方法。首先分析变化条件相关特征值的非静态性演变趋势及规律；然后结合随机抽样技术以及考虑人类活动和气候变化的流域水循环模拟模型，揭示变化条件下引入区与引出区的径流补偿机理；再将径流补偿机理、全局敏感性分析方法与优化算法相结合，建立基于机理分析与多源信息利用的跨流域水库群联合优化调度方法，并将其应用到不同变化条件下库群调度情景的优化计算，分析跨流域水库群联合调度规则的不确定性及适应性，进而解决复杂库群联合优化调度的“维数灾”问题以及库群联合调度规则的“适应性”问题，为跨流域高效水资源利用提供决策支持和科学依据。

在气候变化和人类活动耦合作用下，流域间的水文要素都发生了相应变化，使得变化条件下跨流域水库群联合优化调度研究呈现出了新的特点和难题。本项目针对其中3个主要环节展开研究：1) 针对强人类活动和气候变化干扰下，引、受水区水资源量演变问题，开展了气候变化与人类活动对径流影响的定量研究、基于气候模式筛选的未来水资源量预测分析两项研究，为跨流域水资源配置与调控提供重要的水文输入条件；2) 针对跨流域调水研究中的引水效率问题，开展了基于成本效益分析理论的跨流域引水最优规模分析，为变化条件下的跨流域引水工程初步设计提供重要理论基础；3) 针对跨流域引水后的多目标求解与决策问题，开展了基于偏好信息的改进多目标优化算法，以及基于竞争权衡量化指标设计的多目标决策方法。基于上述研究成果，共发表论文11篇，SCI、EI检索10篇，中文核心1篇。其中包括水文水资源领域顶级期刊《Water Resources Research》1篇，《Water Resources》1篇，《Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management》3篇，《Journal of Hydrology》1篇。