灾害性天气暴雨洪水过程演化与防洪分类调度方法研究

In recent years, with the growing influence of climate change and human activity, the frequency of basin extreme precipitation events is rising. The influencing patterns of hydraulic engineering running on flood process are different, and the transition probability of disastrous storms to extraordinary flood is increasing.The different storm weather correspond with the associated typical flood. In order to improve the forecasting ability of storm flood and disaster reduction function of flood control system effectively, the study on the process simulation, classification forecasting operation and disaster prevention for the disaster storm floods, which exceeding the flood control standard of the flood control disaster reduction project and its protecting object, is very important..This project is based on LiaoHe and SongHuaJiang watershed. Through selecting the typical basin and analysing the influence of hydraulic engineering on the typical disastrous storm flood process by the remote sensing and the engineering running data of the watershed, the forming and evolution regulation of typical weather, storm and flood process of the watershed could be mined and recognized. Based on that, we bring out the distributed flood forecasting model which could consider the hydraulic engineering running effect, as well as raising the flood forecasting method by considering the comprehensive information. The flood control and disaster reduction decision model of the reservoir and flood control system based on the weather storm flood classification could be established to provide the decision support and scientific basis.

近年来，随着气候变化以及人类活动影响的日益增强，流域极端降水事件频发，水利工程的运行以不同形式影响着洪水过程，加大了灾害性暴雨向特大洪水转化的概率，而不同天气暴雨形成往往对应具有相应特点的典型洪水。因此，对超过防洪减灾工程本身及其防护对象防洪标准的各级暴雨洪水，即灾害性天气暴雨洪水，展开过程模拟和分类预报调度防灾研究，对增强我国暴雨洪水预报能力，更有效地发挥防洪系统防洪减灾的作用具有重大意义。本项目以辽河流域与松花江流域为研究对象，选取典型流域，借助遥感及工程运行资料对流域内水利工程在典型灾害性暴雨洪水过程中的行为进行分析，同时对流域内典型天气-暴雨-洪水过程的形成演化规律进行挖掘识别。在以上研究的基础上，构建考虑水利工程运行效应的分布式洪水预报模型，提出考虑综合信息的洪水预报方法。最后建立基于天气暴雨洪水分类的水库及防洪系统的防洪减灾决策模型与方法，为流域防洪安全提供决策支持和科学依据。

本项目以辽河流域与松花江流域为研究区域，从数量众多的中小水库及塘坝对暴雨洪水影响的方式与特点分析入手，借助TOPMODEL模型及其参数的敏感性与不确定性分析，将水利工程对洪水的影响转化为模型动态蓄水容量变化，从而获得水利工程在暴雨洪水过程中的行为效应，并建立考虑水利工程行为效应的暴雨洪水模拟方法；在此基础上，根据降雨中心位置、前期土壤含水量和时段最大降雨位置将洪水分成三类，采用极大熵模型求得相应洪水预报误差的概率密度函数以及合理的预报误差域，确定考虑预报误差的水库分类防洪预报调度方式；紧接着，将考虑洪水预报误差的单库防洪预报调度方式拓展应用于并联水库群，获得各水库的防洪预报调度规则和汛限水位动态控制上限以及相应风险；最终形成一套基于天气暴雨洪水分类的水库及防洪系统的防洪减灾调度模型与方法，实例验证表明，该方法体系能够为流域防洪安全提供决策支持和科学依据。能够为流域防洪安全提供决策支持和科学依据。