跨流域调水系统中水库群联合调度规则与提取方法研究

As a typical research problem in hydrology and water resources area, multi-reservoir joint operation problem has attracted many hydrologists and water resources managers to carry out quite a lot of research work. However, there has been rather few related research job on multi-reservoir joint operation problem in water transfer-supply network project. For reflecting their dynamic interaction relationship, the multi-reservoir water supply operation problem and water transfer operation problem in water network project are taken into consideration at the same time in this study using the coupled optimization model, which can provide the optimal water transfer-supply process of multi-reservoir system operation. From the perspective of operation decision requirement, the set and its elements of multi-reservoir operation policy for water transfer-supply network project are proposed, which are compared using numerical model. According to the numerical results, the most effective operation policy forms and their corresponding suitable conditions can be obtained. On the policy derivation methods, the set pair analysis method and the simulation-optimization model are employed to determine the optimal multi-reservoir operation policy for water transfer-supply network project and the method efficiency are also examined. Finally, the generalized software model is developed for practical application based on the above theoretical research conclusion. This study becomes of great significance, not only for the theory perfection of water resources operation in water transfer-supply network project, but also for enhancing river and lake system interconnection and improving water resources spatial and temporal allocation effect.

水库群联合调度作为水文水资源领域中的经典问题，已吸引众多学者对其进行研究，但目前对跨流域调供水网工程中的水库群联合调度问题研究得较少。为了反映跨流域调水过程和供水过程的相互作用关系，本项目将跨流域调供水网工程中水库群调水和供水问题统一考虑，建立耦合优化模型，确定水网系统内水库群的最优调、供水过程；从决策需求的角度出发，提出跨流域水库群联合调度规则集合及其元素构成；通过模型测试，给出有效规则形式和适用条件； 采用集对分析方法和基于新型算法的模拟-优化模式，提取跨流域水库群联合调度规则；构建跨流域调供水网工程水库群联合调度通用模型。该项研究对于完善跨流域水资源调度理论体系，促进江河湖库水系连通，提高水资源的时空配置效果具有重要意义。

水库群作为跨流域调水工程中的关键调蓄设施，调度结果直接关系到水资源时空配置效果和水利工程效益发挥。尽管国内外学者在水库群联合调度及优化方面取得了一系列的成果，但对跨流域调供水工程中复杂水库群联合调度问题的认识依然不够清晰，缺乏深入的研究。本项目在系统总结已有研究成果的基础上，对跨流域调供水网工程中的水库群联合调度问题开展研究，取得如下主要成果：.1）跨流域调供水网工程中水库群最优调、供水过程耦合研究。为了有效描述和求解跨流域水库群最优调供水过程，本项目建立了基于0-1规划方法的水库群最优化调度模型，统一考虑并最终确定了最优调供水过程。为减少模型单次求解的变量数目，同时增加算法全局搜索的能力，本项目借用逐步优化算法思想，对传统粒子群进行改进，提出了逐步优化粒子群算法（PRA-PSO）对模型进行求解。.2）跨流域调供水网工程中水库群联合调度规则集合构成与元素形式研究。一是本项目以供水调度图和调水控制线为联合调度规则形式，构建同时考虑跨流域调水和供水的复杂水库群联合优化调度模型，添加考虑供水调度图先验形状特征的形状约束。二是本项目以水源水库和受水水库蓄水状态为参考变量，以联合调度曲线为调度规则形式，用以明确何时开始启动调水行为，分析联合调度曲线设置形式对调度结果的影响。.3）跨流域调供水网工程中水库群联合调度规则提取方法研究。本项目在综述水库群联合调度规则提取方法的基础上，分别采用模拟-优化模式和集对分析方法，对跨流域调供水网工程中水库群联合调度规则提取方法进行研究。一是模拟-优化模式，本项目提出一种借鉴逐步优化算法（POA）思想的逐库优化粒子群算法（PRA-PSO），降低单次优化变量的维数，与模拟模型相结合，从而提高其搜索全局最优解的能力。二是集对分析方法，基于跨流域水库群最优调、供水过程，本项目提出了提取跨流域水库群联合调度规则的集对分析新方法。.4）跨流域调供水网工程中水库群联合调度的通用模型程序开发。针对跨流域的调水水库群的联合调水问题，采用C#为编程语言，.NET Framework为基础开发平台，按照跨流域调水水库群联合供水调度业务需求，设计了水库长系列数据管理查看、水库库容管理设置、水库调水信息处理和展示等功能模块，为跨流域调水水库群联合调度提供了有力的技术支持。