参与方个体视角下大型工程项目融资风险动态评价体系研究

In the dual background of an increasing number of large-scale projects and project financing model widely adopted in large-scale projects, project financing risk assessment research is imperative. Currently, a more standardized and complete risk assessment system specifically for the financing individual participant of the large-scale project has not yet be formed, which severely rstricts the scientific and rationality of the financing individual participant's risk assessment in the large-scale project. To solve this problem, the paper proposes the core idea that financing risk factors should be first shared (to solve the pertinence problem) and then be assessed. Based this core idea, a financing risk dynamic assessment system specifically for individual participant is establised, which is successively made up of financing risk stages division (achieving dynamic), financing risk identification (forming a total financing risk system at the present stage), financing risk being shared ( the individual participant obtaining his risk factors at the present stage) and financing risk being assessed (the individual participant achieving his risk state at at the present stage). Finally, the empirical analysis is conducted to revise the project financing risk assessment system for achieving application. The research production can provide theoretical support for enhancing the scientific and rationality of the financing individual participant's risk assessment in the large-scale project.

在大型工程项目日益增多与大型工程项目广泛采用项目融资的双重背景下，进行融资风险评价研究，势在必行。目前，尚未形成较规范和完整的专门针对大型工程项目融资参与方个体的风险评价体系，这严重制约了大型工程项目融资参与方个体风险评价的科学性和合理性。针对这一问题，本课题提出对融资风险"先分担（解决针对性）后评价（解决准确性）"的核心思路，并基于这一核心思路，形成以"融资风险阶段划分（实现动态性）→融资风险识别（形成当前阶段的总融资风险体系）→融资风险分担（参与方个体获得当前阶段应该承担的融资风险因素）→融资风险评价（参与方个体得出当前阶段应该承担的融资风险状况）"为核心内容的专门针对参与方个体的融资风险动态评价体系。最后实证分析动态修正该融资风险动态评价体系，实现推广应用。以期该课题的研究成果能为提升参与方个体融资风险评价的科学性和合理性提供理论支持。

在大型工程项目日益增多与大型工程项目广泛采用项目融资的双重背景下，进行融资风险评价研究，势在必行。本课题提出对融资风险“先分担（解决针对性）后评价（解决准确性）”的核心思路，并基于这一核心思路，形成以“融资风险阶段划分（实现动态性）→融资风险识别（形成当前阶段的总融资风险体系）→融资风险分担（参与方个体获得当前阶段应该承担的融资风险因素）→融资风险评价（参与方个体得出当前阶段应该承担的融资风险状况）”为核心内容的专门针对参与方个体的融资风险动态评价体系。在理论方法上依次为采用了：基于不完全契约理论的动态性、粗糙集理论与自组织影射神经网络相集成的融资风险识别方法、灰色关联度分析与优劣解距离法相结合的融资风险初次分担方法、基于随机合作博弈理论的风险分担比例决策模型以及支持向量机与遗传算法相集成的融资风险评价方法。以青岛胶州湾海底隧道为案例的实证分析表明，该评价体系是科学合理的，该课题的研究成果能为提升参与方个体融资风险评价的科学性和合理性提供理论支持。.