人口老龄化背景下行人动力学演化机理及模型研究

The world’s elderly population is quickly growing, both in its absolute numbers and in its percentage relative to the younger population. Given the particularity of mobility behaviors of the elderly, the project investigates pedestrian dynamics for the crowd including aged people by experiments and modeling. The formation and evolution of jam in crowd will be studied by experiments under laboratory condition and field observations. The influence of environmental factors on pedestrians’ movement will be studied by carrying out virtual experiments and questionnaires. We will study how aged people react and make decisions at different types of facility geometries and environment conditions regarding to exit choice, route choice as well as avoiding obstacles. Based on the experimental results, pedestrian movement model will be developed by considering the particular behaviors and movement patterns of the elders. To guarantee the reliability and accuracy of the proposed model, the parameters in the model will be calibrated quantitatively and qualitatively by using the empirical data and observation. Finally, intervention strategies and guidance methods which is available for the crowd with aged pedestrians will be proposed on the basis of experimental studies, theory analysis and model simulation. The efficiency and security of the strategies will be validated with virtual experiments. The results of the project will be helpful to understand pedestrian dynamics and jamming evolutions. It is also significant on improving the level of crowd management to guarantee the security and comfort of pedestrian movement and providing basic methods and scientific basis for it.

随着社会老龄化进程的加快，老年人口的比例和数量不断增加。针对老年人运动能力和行为方式的特殊性，本项目将通过可控实验与实际观测相结合的方法，量化老年个体特征及环境因素对密集人群运动基本参数的影响，探索老年人群的拥塞动力学演化规律。采用虚拟实验和问卷调查等方式，研究老年人在不同环境条件下的路径选择、出口选择、障碍物避让等决策行为特征。建立能反映老年人特殊的身体特征和运动模式的人群运动模型，并从定性与定量、宏观与微观方面对模型的可靠性进行验证。最终结合实验结果、理论分析和数值模拟，提出兼具安全和效率并适合老年人的人群管理和疏散诱导策略。项目成果对于深入理解行人动力学规律，提高人群的安全管理水平有重要意义。

随着社会老龄化速度的加快，老年人群的安全已成为国际社会普遍关注的重大问题。本项目采用可控实验与虚拟实验相结合的方法，对老年人群的运动行为规律进行了深入系统的研究，建立了考虑老年人特殊运动特征的行人运动模型。主要研究内容与成果包括：（1）老年人群运动规律研究。累计招募120名老年人和371名青年人开展可控实验，以青年人群运动为对照，研究了老年人群在直通道、瓶颈等典型建筑结构中的迈步特征、速度、流量等基本运动特征参数的变化规律，揭示老年人在速度、边界距离、空间分布、迈步方式、运动策略等方面特殊性，建立了统一的基本图物理模型，提出了适用于老年人群的管控策略和基础设施设计建议；（2）基于虚拟现实技术的行人决策机理研究。开发了基于VR技术的虚拟实验平台和针对老年人疏散的科普培训平台，通过虚拟实验和真实实验的对比分析，初步验证了虚拟实验在行人路径选择和障碍物避让等问题研究中的适用性，分析了单房间双出口、多房间多出口环境中疏散的路径选择问题。（3）多组分异质行人流的建模。针对老年群体运动能力差异大的特点及其对周围环境的反应特征，构建了一种考虑舒适距离和行走偏好的行人运动模型和一种基于最小能耗理论的多组分行人运动模型，采用实验数据对模型参数进行了校准，模型能较好地反映混合组分人群的宏观运动特征。此外，针对双出口房间火灾疏散问题，提出了一种扩展的多重网格模型，研究了基于随机效用理论的出口选择问题，以及火灾中行人的运动过程。研究成果对深入理解老年行人群的运动特征，提高老年人群应急疏散管理水平具有指导意义，为公共场所的人群管理和设计提供了理论依据和数据支持。